Below, we explain what this means for Bitcoin and how the latest developments around the US CLARITY Act could shape its path forward.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Implied Volatility is rising again. Is this bullish or bearish?

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One-liners across all four coverage areas: Treasury Companies, Diversified Crypto, Bitcoin Mining, and Macro & Crypto FX.

This week’s report breaks down 20+ assets across crypto, treasury companies, and macro, and a few of the moves are hard to explain unless you know what’s happening behind the scenes.

Hyperliquid remains capped at the $72 resistance and overvaluation zone we flagged in our previous report, and negative newsflow around HYPE is now compounding the pressure. A major airline just started accepting a legacy coin most traders wrote off years ago. One AI-mining name just locked in a lease worth more than its market cap, twice. A privacy coin is rallying and getting targeted by lawmakers in the same week. And two of the largest holders in a red-hot DeFi token just quietly walked away with over $100 million between them.

Meanwhile, gold and the 10-year (yields) are both flashing bullish signals for reasons that have nothing to do with each other, until you connect the dots.

We break down what’s driving each move, which trends are just noise, and where the real setups are heading into next week.

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Rather than write a fresh obituary, we’re sharing the BitMEX chapter from the Crypto Titans book (available on Amazon), because the full arc (Arthur Hayes’ arbitrage trade, the invention of the perpetual swap, the March 2020 liquidation crisis, the CFTC case) explains why this ending was years in the making.

Once the most important crypto exchange globally, BitMEX has announced it will shut down operations. The exchange now holds just 0.08% of the Bitcoin futures market, with daily trading volume of around $84 million, a steep fall from its former dominance.

On July 23, HDR Global Trading, BitMEX’s parent company, confirmed the decision to cease operations following a broad strategic review. Founded in 2014, the exchange will close after 12 years. Reports from 2025 had indicated that BitMEX’s owners were exploring a potential $1 billion sale through investment bank Broadhaven Capital Partners before ultimately opting for an orderly wind-down instead.

“I’m a businessman, not a priest”

(Arthur Hayes, BitMEX)

Please see the full chapter on BitMEX below:

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That said, there are important insights emerging from the Bitcoin options market, where pricing by sophisticated traders has proven particularly instructive. Meanwhile, hedge funds are sitting on record short positions against Coinbase and Circle, making it critical to monitor the levels at which those shorts move underwater.

The key question, then, is whether Coinbase and Circle now offer an opportunity, and whether Bitcoin’s rally will be powerful enough to force the hand of hedge funds that have bet billions against Coinbase and other crypto companies.

Bitcoin (LHS) vs. Coinbase (RHS) - which one to buy?

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Sometimes Bitcoin moves on little news; Bitcoin can be up or down, but this is precisely when most traders miss the big moves, because without a catalyst, the media won’t ring the bell. Instead, a small grind lower, or a steady bid, quietly drives prices. Often the news only comes out later, explaining why prices moved in the first place.

Bitcoin and Ethereum have now triggered important levels, and as we’ve shown in recent reports and will show again in this one, those levels matter for short-term traders and long-term investors alike. The risk/reward shifts not when there’s a loud catalyst, but during the quiet periods that make little in the way of headlines. That’s precisely when traders and investors should be listening most carefully.

What are our systematic trading models suggesting traders should do here?

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We believe there’s a better, faster, and more accurate way to measure it: focusing on actual money flow, such as Bitcoin ETF inflows, alongside other technical factors. Still, we use our own sentiment indicator to time the market more accurately.

Nobody rang a bell at the top of the cycle in October 2025 (here); instead, the structure underneath the price action was already revealing that a bear market was about to begin. But this analysis works in reverse, too.

Bitcoin ETF Flows (LHS, accumulated, $bn) vs. Monthly (RHS)

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Instead, traders should focus on identifying when the risk-reward is favorable, often signaled by Bitcoin reacting better than expected to news, or by technicals that look stronger than they first appear, as we explain below.

Bitcoin (LHS) vs. its 21-week moving average (RHS)

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One-liners across all four coverage areas: Treasury Companies, Diversified Crypto, Bitcoin Mining, and Macro & Crypto FX.

From Ethereum’s audacious 2029 roadmap to a wave of institutions racing onto Chainlink’s CCIP, this week’s report is packed with catalysts across crypto, treasury companies, and mining stocks. Robinhood Chain alone is reshaping the story for at least five different tokens. A major Bitcoin whale movement has traders speculating. One mining stock just unlocked a $6B+ recurring-revenue deal, while another got hit with a state-level regulatory gut-punch.

Plus: which stablecoin issuer just won a historic bank charter and was immediately downgraded anyway.

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Technicals are always prone to interpretation, but they also help clarify where the pain points are and when the momentum of a bull or bear market is shifting. There are some important developments occurring right now that could give traders a leg up before the broader market catches on.

Below we show the most important charts for Bitcoin and Ethereum

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Our broader framework had been: cheap below $80, expensive above $125. But when the price dropped back to $80 more recently, we did not repeat the buy call, since the fundamentals had meaningfully deteriorated in the interim.

There have been several important developments that directly impact Circle’s business prospects, some of which threaten the company’s survival outright. The report below highlights what investors should be focusing on now, and which factors matter most.

There’s a bullish case too, but first we need to look down, and gauge just how deep this could go. We explain below.

Circle (LHS) vs. USDC active addresses (RHS) - activity slowed down

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Some analysts point to liquidity conditions as the key driver; others lean on Metcalfe’s Law-style network-adoption frameworks as Bitcoin’s primary price driver. Other traders simply watch the Fed and react accordingly. Below, we break down what matters for Bitcoin and how the buying and selling behavior has evolved.

Bitcoin ETFs have been a major driver of this cycle, and their aggregate holdings are now down 25% from cost basis. Seasonally, July tends to be a strong month for Bitcoin. As we noted in yesterday’s report, Bitcoin has already delivered the projected return this month, but the month also tends to see a mid-month pullback. The next 24 hours will likely set the tone for September expectations, and we suspect…

Bitcoin (LHS) vs. BTC ETF Cost Basis (LHS) vs. Profit/Loss % (RHS)

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Bitcoin ETF outflows have topped $10 billion since the October peak, and stablecoins are now bleeding too, partly a MiCA casualty, partly a broader de-risking signal. Meanwhile, Strategy’s mNAV has slipped back to parity, and a growing list of Bitcoin treasury companies are becoming net sellers rather than buyers. Add a CLARITY Act that’s round-tripped from 46% to 75% and back to 46% on prediction markets, and a CPI data print this week that could swing sentiment either way, and you have a market that’s holding up better than the headlines suggest.

We break down why Bitcoin’s resilience above its 30-day moving average matters more than the noise, which treasury companies are turning into value plays, and why we’re constructive on the short term but cautious into the seasonally rough August–September stretch.

Still, there are three altcoin trades that look more promising than Bitcoin in the short term.

Stablecoin market cap (LHS, $bn, USDT + USDC) with 30 week flows (RHS)

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One-liners across all four coverage areas: Treasury Companies, Diversified Crypto, Bitcoin Mining, and Macro & Crypto FX.

This week’s “One Liners” flagged seven tokens that are all doing the same thing at once, trading above both their moving averages, with a fresh, idiosyncratic catalyst behind each move rather than just beta to Bitcoin. Weekly gains range from the low single digits to nearly +20%, and in a couple of cases, the catalyst is structural enough that it could matter beyond this week: a deal that changes how a protocol earns revenue, a technical fix that removes a supply-integrity overhang, a treasury that’s been quietly buying every day.

The question, as always, is follow-through. Momentum plus a catalyst isn’t the same as a trend, but it is a setup we can work with. Whether these seven turn into something durable depends on whether the underlying technical levels remain robust, or if this was just a one-day pop that fades once the news is priced in.

Ethereum is technically improving, but improving isn’t the same as leading. It’s still lacking a clear catalyst of its own, and it continues to fail to outperform Bitcoin, which is the tell that actually matters. A market can grind higher on beta alone; it can’t build a real trend without a reason.

That’s not where the interesting setups are this week. A handful of other tokens are showing something ETH isn’t: genuine catalysts, and the price action to match. We break down all 7, the specific levels, the catalysts, and which ones look like they have legs.

Ethereum is not one of our top charts

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The actual constraint on decentralized money was never monetary policy. It’s physics. Heat, power, and jurisdiction are the three problems every data center on Earth faces, and every one of them disappears in orbit. Once you see why, the connection between SpaceX, Starlink, and Bitcoin stops looking like a coincidence and starts to look like a single, deliberate infrastructure buildout, with a mirror image being built by the other side.

Because the same technologies that decentralize power can just as easily concentrate it. Cryptography, satellites, and AI cut both ways. And right now, two infrastructure stacks are racing to sign up the world’s population before the other does.

Whoever wins that race doesn’t just win a market. They win the operating system for the next century.

We think this is the most important and least discussed investment and geopolitical question of the decade. Here’s the full thesis, including where SpaceX’s real business model sits inside it, why China’s digital yuan is Bitcoin’s exact photographic negative, and what happens to Palantir’s core business model once populations start migrating off the grid it depends on.

Bitcoin (LHS) vs. Palantir (RHS)

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Investors need a strategy for navigating these listings, and quantitative tools help make that decision-making more disciplined. This is exactly what allowed us to flag Coinbase when it was undervalued, and when it was overvalued. In today’s report, we look at where smart investors should start accumulating, what fair value looks like for the most important name in the industry, and, critically, how the Bitcoin cycle is likely to shape that path forward.

Like Bitcoin itself, listed crypto stocks are volatile and cyclical, and investors with a disciplined, quantitative process can learn to ride those waves. Like a World Cup striker who goes quiet for 80 minutes, crypto equity investors don’t need to shine all the time, just when it counts, when the chance to score arrives.

Below, we explain when and for whom that moment is likely to come.

Drawdown by recently listed crypto companies (including Coinbase)

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Bitcoin miners are now deeply intertwined with the AI theme, so Bitcoin investors need to closely monitor the changing narratives on that side of the market, too. That theme is less about adoption and the digitization of finance, and more about global supply chains and competition. This report touches on those dynamics, including the performance of Chinese LLM stocks and the outlook from the Korean semiconductor supply chain, both of which are now directly impacting Bitcoin mining stocks.

We also identify a potential date by which this correction could run its course.

Bitcoin miner Riot Platforms (LHS) vs. Semi SOX ETF (RHS)

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That said, the broader context still matters, and traders must distinguish among short-, medium-, and long-term horizons. Somewhat unexpectedly, we’ve now reached a point where sentiment is very low, as reflected in $9 billion in Bitcoin ETF outflows over the last two months, alongside notably lower trading volumes.

This is precisely the scenario we outlined seven months ago, back in December. Bitcoin is now trading at $63,826, close to our $65,888 target from that December report. That said, we have since adjusted this target, as our monthly cycle charts have not yet turned.

Even at this point, there are still several trades traders can put on; it just depends on how tactical they want to be. There’s a clear distinction between short-term and medium-term views here, which matters especially as we approach these pivotal levels and catalysts.

Bitcoin (LHS) vs. our Greed & Fear Index (RHS) - tradeable bottom?

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One-liners across all four coverage areas: Treasury Companies, Diversified Crypto, Bitcoin Mining, and Macro & Crypto FX.

Solana’s tokenized-stock machine just crossed a $1.36 billion milestone, and it’s rewriting the leaderboard across the ecosystem, from Raydium’s record xStocks volume to Jupiter’s revenue surge. Meanwhile, Bitcoin snapped a record 13-day, $4.5 billion ETF outflow streak the moment June’s jobs report came in soft, and gold, yields, and the dollar all pivoted on the same print.

On the equity side, Meta’s move to build its own AI cloud business just torched the miners’ neocloud narrative overnight. Keel, Bitdeer, CleanSpark, Iren, TeraWulf, and Core Scientific are all in the red. And a new stablecoin war just opened up, with Coinbase, Visa, Mastercard, and BlackRock’s fee-free Open USD taking direct aim at Circle.

Full signal-by-signal breakdown and regime read below.

Our latest video is below:

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Bitcoin Seasonality (% return, last 10 years)

Beyond options, we’re tracking a divergence forming beneath the surface: Bitcoin miners are repricing hard even as the AI compute story has years left to run, tokenized stocks are pulling fresh capital into the ecosystem, and one high-profile miner spinoff is flashing a very different signal than its parent company.

Below, we break down our favorite trades for this environment, which ones we’d put on right now, and which ones we’d wait for better levels to enter. Today’s report covers trading ideas across Bitcoin options, crypto stocks, and crypto tokens, the best of all worlds.

Full trade setup, price targets, and stock-specific calls below.

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In our December 19, 2025, report, “Trading the Reset: Bitcoin’s Path Through the Cycle Low,” we projected a decline toward $65,888, with a potential bottom forming during the FIFA World Cup. That call was built on our October report “Bear Market Watch: What Smart Money Is Seeing in Bitcoin’s Data”, in which we first flagged Bitcoin’s transition into a bear market and later, on February 5, 2026, “Bitcoin Cycle Low Level Identified – Out Elliot Wave Model Reveals the Exact Time & Zone”, revised our downside target to $50,000.

Bitcoin - revising our projected cycle low

But this bear market trades and feels nothing like 2022. Back then, we were fresh off the FTX conference in April, sentiment was still buoyant, and Bitcoin was trading near $40,000. We held our own conference in Singapore a month later, drawing 300 attendees, and sentiment was still strong.

One of my presentation slides showed that if the typical bear market cycle held, prices would decline for another six months and fall an additional 50% with a potential bottom in November 2022, but this was largely brushed aside. Nobody expected the typical bear market pattern to hold true.

In our Elliott Wave pattern report from February 5, 2026, we projected that Bitcoin would rally from Wave (A) around $63,000 to Wave (B) at $82,000 (within our projected $80,000–$90,000 range), followed by Wave (C), which we expect to send prices toward $50,000.

As Bitcoin approaches the $55,000 level, the remaining question is which catalyst could confirm the low, and we draw parallels to the 2022 bear market. We are also fine-tuning our projected Bitcoin low and answering the question of when we would be buying for the next structural leg higher. This report is meant to help investors navigate the final steps of this bear market, and often, the last steps are the most important.

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