Based on some of our CPI models, which we explain below, this concern may be justified when looking purely at the data, but other considerations are at play. How are traders pricing Bitcoin’s move over the next 36 hours as the CPI print hits the market? And how are they positioning for Bitcoin’s move after the FOMC meeting?

We break this down below, along with an important factor with $6.6 billion at stake and how it could shape Bitcoin’s reaction to both the CPI data and the Fed decision.

US ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (LHS) vs. US CPI YoY (RHS)

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Could our next favorite trade be derailed by a higher CPI print? We explain below.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (LHS) vs. US CPI (RHS)

Anthropic is preparing its roadshow for a potential IPO next month, and several stocks could benefit ahead of the actual listing. In Q2, our cross-asset publication identified several space-related stocks as ways to trade the SpaceX IPO before it listed (here). This time, the ecosystem that stands to benefit from an Anthropic listing looks different, but based on our frameworks, the opportunity is here now, and a handful of these plays are already catching fire, as we explain below. Accordingly, we would take profit on our Circle trade and rotate into potential Anthropic IPO beneficiaries we identify below:

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Bitcoin’s round-trip from $76,600 back above $80,000 in under a week wasn’t a coincidence; it was a direct reaction to one Fed official’s comments and a rapid repricing of rate-cut odds. But with a stronger labor report pushing hike probabilities back to 50% and this week’s CPI print now the swing factor, the setup into $82,000 resistance is more delicate than the headline gain suggests.

Inside this week’s Kickoff: why our tactical model just flipped bullish on altcoins over Bitcoin, what the options market’s shift from puts to calls tells us about how traders are positioned, and the exact price levels and volatility ranges we’re watching for Bitcoin and Ethereum this week.

39.7% of ALL Ethereum options traded during the last week were ‘calls bought’

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Zcash is up 62% since we flagged it. Did you catch it?

Zcash just broke out to a new high. If you weren’t positioned, here’s the uncomfortable part: our model flagged this setup weeks ago, and it’s already up 34% since. In our altcoin model portfolio, available to Trading Signals subscribers, Zcash has returned +176%.

This isn’t a “what happens next” story. It’s a “this already happened, and paid subscribers had it” story.

On August 21^st (https://signal.10xresearch.com/p/zcash-broke-out-here-s-what-the-odds-say-happens-next), our quant models triggered a signal on ZEC-USD at $720.03, scoring it 7.2 out of 10, one of our higher-conviction reads. The model didn’t just say “bullish.” It quantified it:

ZEC-USD: New Medium-Term High — Triggered Aug 21, 2026

• Historical median return after similar setups: +19.5% over 1 month (10 prior occasions, 80% hit ratio)

• Entry: 720.03 | Target: 860 (+19.5%) | Stop-loss: 667 (-7.3%)

• Recommended position size: 13.6% of a $100k portfolio

That signal has already outperformed its own target, ZEC is up over 62% since it triggered. Subscribers who acted on it were in before the breakout, not chasing it after.

And this isn’t a one-off. When Bitcoin ripped to $69,000, our models gave subscribers a clear read while everyone else was second-guessing whether to fade it. Same process. Same edge.

Here’s the thing about signals: the value isn’t in reading about the move after it happens. It’s in having the call before it does. Free content tells you what happened. Trading Signals tells you what’s setting up, with the entry, the target, the stop-loss, and the position size already worked out, the moment our models trigger it.

You missed this one. The next signal is already loading.

[Upgrade to Trading Signals →] https://signal.10xresearch.com/upgrade

Subscribers also get full access to 10x Market Updates and the rest of our Trading Signals suite, including our weekly options report, weekly altcoin chart book, and the trading dashboard with our model portfolios.

Past performance and back-tested returns do not guarantee future results.

Licensed to: Confidential – Licensed for the exclusive use of the recipient. Redistribution, forwarding, copying, or publication without prior written permission from 10x Research is strictly prohibited and may result in termination of the subscription.

Disclaimer: This email and any attached research are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any asset. 10x Research Pte. Ltd. does not provide personalized investment advice and is not licensed or registered as a broker-dealer, investment adviser, or financial adviser in any jurisdiction. Information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness, and all views, estimates, and forecasts are the authors’ own as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not intended for distribution in any jurisdiction where such distribution would be unlawful, and is not directed at retail investors. 10x Research and its principals may hold positions in assets discussed herein. This document is confidential and intended solely for the recipient; unauthorized redistribution is prohibited. Please consult a qualified independent professional before making any financial decision. © 10x Research.

This report works through the growth data, the mechanics of why the chain could succeed where prior tokenization efforts stalled, and, critically, who is actually capturing the economics as the chain scales. The short answer, worth stating up front: the data supports real, durable adoption alongside real, current speculative excess, and untangling the two is the whole game for anyone positioning around this theme. We also identify which assets, stocks and altcoins alike, look like the key beneficiaries investors may want to consider owning.

Robinhood (LHS) vs. Coinbase (RHS)

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One-liners across all four coverage areas: Treasury Companies, Diversified Crypto, Bitcoin Mining, and Macro & Crypto FX.

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Since its August 12, 2026, launch, our four-stock crypto equity portfolio is up +24.5%, led by Circle, which we flagged as a buy at $61 following its August 5, 2026, earnings and which is now up +69%. There’s also plenty happening around Robinhood: our trading signals flashed three buy signals in August alone, and the stock has rallied to its highest level since April 2026. In a bull market, there’s no shortage of good ideas.

Bitcoin (LHS) vs. Robinhood (RHS) - outpacing after upgrades

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We explain which dates matter most for shifting the current 58% probability of a Fed rate hike this month, and how we’re positioned. We also walk through how second-order effects are showing up in asset prices, and how stocks and Bitcoin could perform over the next few months. Importantly, this is not the time to be blindly bullish with max risk on. Rather, it’s about having a strategy, knowing which events warrant stepping in, and at what level.

US 10-year yield breaking the upper resistance, measured move to 6.4%?

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Drinks and light bites provided. Space is limited, so reserve your spot early.

Event details and sign-up link below.

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This Sunday/Monday crypto kickoff walks through the data points driving market structure, flows, and positioning this week, blended with the macro backdrop and technicals that could shift the narrative in the days ahead. It’s a short-term-focused read, grounded in data, interpreted through our lens, and built to prepare you for the week ahead.

Bitcoin vs. its 1-year moving average and various resistance zones

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One-liners across all four coverage areas: Treasury Companies, Diversified Crypto, Bitcoin Mining, and Macro & Crypto FX.

This week’s crypto tape had a split personality: Bitcoin flirted with $81K before Fed governor Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole debut sent it, and most of the market, reeling into Friday. Beneath the surface, though, the real story was dispersion: governance votes and tokenomics overhauls sent Solana, Polygon, and Ethena sharply higher, tokenized-equity narratives fueled explosive gains in Uniswap and Bullish, while Jito cratered on eroding protocol revenue and TRUMP ripped 43% on nothing more than a rumor.

On the equity side, Bitcoin miners’ AI pivot keeps cutting both ways, Bitdeer’s $4.7 billion Anthropic lease couldn’t offset dilution fears, and Iren’s AI backlog wasn’t enough to erase a $684 million impairment charge. Here’s what actually moved each asset, name by name.

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Our thesis on a Bitcoin cycle rebound in August has played out similarly well. On August 13, we outlined positioning across a targeted four-stock crypto basket, which has since gained +17%. Additionally, the Bitcoin $70,000 call options expiring August 28, which were trading at $300 when we shared our analysis on August 5, have risen to $9,000 heading into expiration.

These quick movements across Bitcoin, crypto stocks, and BTC derivatives highlight the speed of the recent rally. While many market participants missed the move entirely, others are now weighing whether to take profits or evaluating if Bitcoin has established a durable bottom. Below, we outline our current market perspective and how we are managing and adjusting our positions.

Bitcoin (LHS) vs. Stochastics (RHS) - overbought. What should traders do?

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In addition, we’re tracking FOUR separate technical signals right now: a multi-year trendline breakout, a moving average that’s flipped bullish, and a shorter-term positioning indicator that are all converging on the same price level. That level is the line in the sand for whether this is really a bull market or a trap.

Where exactly is that level, and what’s our base-case price target for the next month? That’s below.

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We have a special add-on offer for Market Updates subscribers who’d like to add Trading Signals, including our BTC and ETH volatility publication and including our Dashboard with our model portfolios. If interested, email info@10xresearch.com.

10x Weekly Crypto Kickoff – Bitcoin’s Bull Market Is Officially Here.

We have consistently pointed out that Bitcoin would most likely confirm its cycle low in either August or September, with August looking increasingly likely. Still, $63,000 was a binary level, as the distribution price had moved there, meaning a rally of just 2-3% above that level would suddenly awaken the animal spirits.

Many Bitcoin buyers would have flipped back into profit above that level ($65,000) and likely increased their leverage, pushing Bitcoin higher still. The resulting delta increase from options, with a large amount of calls sitting at the $70,000 strike level, could provide a further push, which would in turn lift funding rates (ENA token the key beneficiary) and attract more ETF inflows. We explained this dynamic in a CoinDesk interview (here) last week, conducted when Bitcoin was still trading at $63,000.

Crypto Market Cap (LHS, $trn) vs. Trading Volumes (RHS, $bn)

Our preferred way to express this potential cycle bottom, now confirmed, was to buy upside calls (here, here), in Bitcoin, with the $70,000 August 28, 2026 calls rising from $300 to $7,600. Our (trading signals) altcoin model portfolio has gained +39% over the last five months, outperforming Bitcoin’s 9% and delivering 30% alpha. Meanwhile, our crypto equity portfolio, which we suggested less than two weeks ago, is up 14.5% (here), notably Circle, which we suggested buying post-earnings at the $61 dip, and which is now up 44%.

It’s a fast market that was simply waiting to move higher. Even if Bitcoin had traded below $63,000, we thought any dip would be shallow but short-lived. That’s why we kept suggesting investors allocate into a longer-term portfolio rather than wait for a potential October cycle low, as some have been suggesting. The technical cycle analysis from weekly and monthly charts pointed in this direction (here), with the setup resembling October 2022, when we also called the bottom, another contrarian call at the time.

Bitcoin (LHS) vs. our trend model

Several bullish catalysts had an outsized impact on crypto prices that we don’t want to brush over. But more than that, certain trends, such as the rally in gold prices (see 100% hit ratio for gold signal), reached a tipping point, where ‘symbolic’ announcements, like the Treasury shifting some longer-dated bonds into shorter-dated ones and increasing the size from $2bn to $4bn, created an outsized ‘QE is back’ through some form of operation twist vibe.

This has been part of the Treasury Secretary’s already-growing intervention to stop the rise in US long-term yields, following his earlier intervention in the Japanese yen. With less incentive to keep Japanese pension and insurance money in the US bond market, Japan could, as China has already done, unwind part of its $1.1 trillion US bond portfolio. These two interventions are now a trend, even as Fed Chair Warsh has claimed he’ll let market forces determine the appropriate yield level. Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole on Friday, August 28, 2026, at 10 am ET.

Those macro forces are bullish for Bitcoin. Trump has claimed the US is still working on a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, though nothing is imminent. Meanwhile, the odds of the Clarity Act passing and becoming law in 2026 are still only around 24%, but the market has moved sharply whenever Trump has held closed-door meetings with crypto executives and shared potentially important news. In July 2024, Trump’s closed-door meetings with crypto executives triggered a huge accumulation trend among whale wallets, with more than 1.2 million BTC accumulated over the following months. The Senate will take up the Clarity Act vote on September 15, 2026.

But much more is happening behind the scenes: important regulatory changes, key updates on flows and positioning, and how we’d trade the latest move, including what traders should be doing now and how they should be positioned. We explain it all below.

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Bitcoin is now trading near $75,000, catching most of the market off guard. After settling into a comfortable summer lull, most traders had expected the bottom to arrive only in October. We took a different view, positioning for a surprising upside move instead, a thesis we laid out in a recent CoinDesk interview (here), conducted when Bitcoin was still trading at $63,000.

When Bitcoin jumped to $69,201 yesterday, many traders looked to fade the rally, but our statistical analysis pointed the other way (here): the push higher was likely to continue. Because we focused on Bitcoin options, instead of spot or futures, we stayed in the trade and let the P&L keep running.

In our August 5 report, “How We’d Be Using Bitcoin Options Right Now for the Next Move,” we recommended buying the $70,000-strike Bitcoin calls expiring August 28, 2026. Since then, those calls have surged from $358 to $5,130 (or 1,334%) as implied volatility climbed from 30% to 40%, and Bitcoin rallied.

A critical question now is whether this move continues, and if so, how high. But equally important: for traders who followed our suggestion to buy the $70,000 August calls, what should they be doing now, and what’s our preferred trade going forward?

Our favorite trade for August - BTC $70,000 calls

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One-liners across all four coverage areas: Treasury Companies, Diversified Crypto, Bitcoin Mining, and Macro & Crypto FX.

Last week’s six One Liner charts (here) delivered standout performance and were squarely at the center of the market’s biggest moves. Circle gained +15% since our last publication, Gold rose +3.7%, Monero added +4%, Hyperliquid surged +30%, and Pump. fun climbed +27%, while Iren was the lone laggard, down 6%. That’s five winners against one loser, for an average return of +12% across the six names. Here’s a look at this week’s six charts.

Earlier in August, we replaced one of the 10 coins in our ‘Discretionary Altcoin Model’ portfolio (here, see dashboard for Trading Signals) with Pump. Fun, arguably a swap we should have made sooner, given its strong catalysts. Even so, the position has already delivered exceptional performance: Pump. Fun’s token was one of last week’s top performers, returning +32% and outpacing even market favorite HYPE. We’ve also flagged Pump. Fun repeatedly in this report over the past few weeks, notably just last week, right before its big move.

On August 12, we proposed a portfolio of “Four Crypto Stocks We’d Buy for the Next 6-12 Months,” which is already up +10.6%. We have strong conviction in this portfolio as a compelling way to gain exposure, with several of these names positioned for outsized returns. We’ve also added it to the dashboard so Trading Signals subscribers can track its performance directly.

Pump. fun was one of our top charts in last week’s report

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After months of Bitcoin trading within a tight range, we anticipated a decisive move in either direction. Our preferred strategy this month was buying the $70,000 strike calls, which traded for as little as $300 on August 5 (here), dipped to just $30 three days ago, and then rallied to a high of $1,600; they currently trade around $1,300.

Those returns have been phenomenal, and the collapse in implied volatility this month made this the best risk-adjusted way to position for an upside spike, especially at a moment when most traders weren’t expecting one, as reflected in the low trading volume at the time. An even better trade was (or still is) our $70,000/$80,000 call spread expiring in September, a slightly more bullish structure that also offered the flexibility to buy back the lower-strike call if Bitcoin broke through our $62,000 stop, which it fortunately did not.

Bitcoin (LHS) vs. US Debt (RHS) - periods of BTC over- and under-valuation

Circle was another of our top recommendations this month (here): we suggested buying the dip after its earnings release as the stock fell toward $60–$61, and it now trades at $80, up more than 31%. Ahead of the February earnings report, where we projected a wave of short covering, we made a similarly successful call; Circle shares quickly rallied 80% as that short covering played out (here).

Three of our four crypto equity trades for the next 6–12 months (here) have now also reached our “top chart” rating, a signal that requires trading above both the short-term (7-day) and medium-term (30-day) moving averages while also outperforming Bitcoin.

Our gold trade has played out similarly well. We first flagged it on July 7, 2026 (here), when weekly technicals turned oversold, a rare setup that had only occurred once before, in September 2023, ahead of that period’s major breakout. Our trading signals flagged a setup on August 5 (here) that had worked 10 out of the last 10 times, with an average upside of +12.9%. Stocks, however, often move ahead of the underlying commodity, and in this case, our signals had already picked up a similar pattern in Newmont Goldcorp on July 30 (here), which has since returned +31%.

Gold - breaking the triangle - confirming the base

Of course, not every trading signal will be successful, but we kept reiterating the gold call as it aligned with our macro view, and the breakout materialized, with gold rallying from $4,100 to $4,571 (+11%). The core driver behind our thesis was our expectation that U.S. debt would soon eclipse $40 trillion, generating headline risk that would push gold, and likely Bitcoin, higher.

Technically, the gold trigger was a break above $4,200; a level that not only confirmed the bottoming-out process was complete (here), but also signaled that the market was looking past the hawkishness of the Fed members, a view we don’t share. Quite the opposite: we see Warsh’s early comments as an attempt to build credibility with the bond market, given that the 4.70% yield level is being actively defended by the Fed, the Treasury, and even Trump.

Bitcoin (LHS) vs. Gold (RHS)

That’s why we believe Warsh’s task force is largely buying time until inflation resumes its decline, which our models indicate is already underway, rather than laying groundwork for further tightening. The market is currently pricing in two more hikes; we think neither will materialize. This divergence has made us more bullish, and we expect a Bitcoin cycle bottom to be confirmed this month, in August.

Higher bond yields, or more precisely, a higher cost of capital, have mattered more than headline interest rates, since bond yields reprice far more frequently and reflect the market’s real-time read on supply and demand. Debt issuance has driven that dynamic: total U.S. debt has grown roughly 10% over the past 12 months, rising from $36 trillion to the psychologically significant $40 trillion level after Trump pushed through a new debt ceiling in early July 2025.

Compounding the pressure, U.S. tech companies have been issuing record amounts of debt to fund AI data center buildouts, and because their yields now sit close to what the U.S. government itself offers, that corporate issuance is increasingly crowding out demand for Treasuries.

Japan is one of the largest foreign holders of U.S. Treasuries, with $1.1 trillion outstanding, making it America’s largest foreign creditor. Five years ago, Japanese interest rates sat near zero, forcing Japanese insurers and pension funds to search for yield abroad, much of it in U.S. bonds.

That calculus has now shifted: Japanese 10-year yields have climbed to 2.85%, and the 30-year sits near 4.0%, high enough for domestic bonds to meet those institutions’ return obligations on their own. With the yen having weakened 42% against the dollar over the past five years, the case for staying in U.S. Treasuries looks even less compelling, since Treasury bond losses are eating into returns even as domestic yields rise.

At some point, the logic tilts toward taking profits and repatriating capital, much as has been feared with Chinese holders (sold $700 billion), and that’s the core worry for the U.S.: high Treasury yields mean any capital loss on the bonds compounds the pressure to sell, and Japan pulling back as a buyer would remove one of the largest sources of demand in the market. This dynamic prompted Treasury Secretary Bessent to intervene in the yen on July 31, 2026, reportedly buying $5–10 billion, the first such intervention in 15 years.

Bessent is no stranger to Japan or its policymakers. Back when he was CIO of Soros Fund Management, I met with him at his office to discuss the Japanese equity sectors during the Abenomics era, and he mentioned, almost in passing, that Japan’s Finance Minister had been sitting in that very same chair just an hour before me.

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Bitcoin spent six months trading in a narrow range around $60,000 ahead of the 2024 US election, a level that also marked the top-building zone from the 2021 cycle. Once Trump’s win was confirmed in November 2024, Bitcoin rallied quickly, moving from $70,000 to $90,000. It briefly dipped below $90,000 during the April 2025 tariff shock, but trading activity in that pullback was thin because nearly every holder was still in profit.

That thinness became the story. With so little turnover between $70,000 and $90,000, we flagged in November 2025 that below $93,000 Bitcoin was vulnerable to a sharp decline: technically, almost no supply was resting between that range and the mid-$60,000s to slow a move down. Indeed, the drop was no coincidence. Bitcoin has since spent another six months consolidating back in the $60,000 zone, but the distribution of where coins actually changed hands during this period has shifted meaningfully, and that shift carries real implications for Bitcoin’s next move.

Bitcoin (LHS) vs. BTC on exchanges (RHS) - ready to sell? Not to fast….

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This Sunday/Monday crypto kickoff walks through the data points driving market structure, flows, and positioning this week, blended with the macro backdrop and technicals that could shift the narrative in the days ahead. It’s a short-term-focused read, grounded in data, interpreted through our lens, and built to prepare you for the week ahead.

Below, we also explain how we’d position ourselves.

Crypto Market Cap (LHS, $trn) vs. Crypto Trading Volumes (RHS, $bn)

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In today’s report, we provide a brief overview of Bitcoin’s technical situation, which needs an update as key levels are being breached or are about to be. That said, we’re holding our view based on monthly indicators, while staying mindful of the need for disciplined short-term risk management.

We’re also sharing a different kind of report, “Bitcoin’s Gentrification Cycle,” which explains why the lack of retail participation wasn’t a concern in the last cycle, and likely won’t be the driving force in the next one either. The piece walks through this transition: why other players matter more now, and why Bitcoin will trade on different drivers than in previous cycles. The neighborhood has simply changed.

Bitcoin - breakout/breakdown model

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