10x Research Market Updates

Bitcoin's Cyclical Bottom: Real Floor or "Different This Time"?

10x Research — Thu, 11 Jun 2026 23:56:03 GMT

Bitcoin’s Cyclical Bottom: Real Floor or “Different This Time”?

On October 22, 2025, we suggested that Bitcoin was entering a bear market, a thesis we detailed during a mid-November CoinDesk interview broadcasted on December 2, 2025 (watch from minute 17:00), where we projected a decline toward $50,000. Now, with the latest inflation data softening, some traders are wondering if the recent retest of $60,000 marked the absolute cycle low. In our recent BBC interview, we noted that sticky inflation would likely remain a headwind before institutional investors commit serious capital back to the asset class. So, are we changing our view based on this month-on-month CPI improvement? Has the cycle truly bottomed?

We initially penciled in a summer low for this cycle. Savvy market participants understand that investing in Bitcoin is not about simple dollar-cost averaging, but about actively trading these macro cycles. The “OG” investors proved this last year by perfectly distributing billions of dollars in Bitcoin to inexperienced Wall Street newcomers. While one group focused strictly on the cycles, the other was blinded by the narrative of digital gold.

The charts below answer the most critical question in crypto today: have we printed the cycle low, and if not, when will it occur?

Bitcoin (LHS) - oversold, but is this really the time to load up?

One Liners: Crypto Market Drivers — 6 Charts That Matter Now

10x Research — Thu, 11 Jun 2026 13:03:11 GMT

One-liners across all four coverage areas: Treasury Companies, Diversified Crypto, Bitcoin Mining, and Macro & Crypto FX.

Bitcoin broke below $60K as four pressures hit simultaneously. Ethereum fell 67% from its August highs. Zcash lost $3 billion in market cap after a four-year-old vulnerability was discovered by an AI. Arthur Hayes dumped NEAR, then Worldcoin, one day after saying he’d hold. A $700 million Hyperliquid unlock and a simultaneous FCA ban torched HYPE in a single session. TON’s sharding upgrade caused a six-hour network outage. Sui’s gas bug triggered a mainnet stall. CEA Industries faces delisting. Bitdeer lost its COO, CBO, and CFO in the same week.

The handful of winners, Robinhood, Galaxy Digital, IREN, survived on company-specific catalysts strong enough to override the macro. Everything else sold off.

Thirty-two assets. One brutal week. The full breakdown is below.

HYPE at $72: Overvalued, Fair Value, or the Next $100 Token?

The Clock Is Ticking for Bitcoin - Two Weeks. Two Events.

10x Research — Wed, 10 Jun 2026 04:57:23 GMT

On May 16, we told subscribers: stop treating Bitcoin as an inflation hedge. It isn't.

It's a liquidity hedge. It rises when monetary conditions loosen. It falls when they tighten.

At the time, markets had moved from pricing 2.6 Fed cuts to 45 basis points of tightening. Oil was up 40%. CPI had climbed from 2.4% to 3.8%. PPI had surged from 2.9% to 6.0%. The 30-year was breaching 5.0%.

We set our stop at Bitcoin's 30-day moving average ($78,404). We flagged Ethereum as the cleaner short.

Since then:
— Bitcoin fell 23% through our stop
— Ethereum fell 30%

Most traders were caught off-side. Not because the data was hidden — it wasn't. But because they were using the wrong framework.

Every report we write asks the same question: has the regime changed, and if so, what caused it, and what are the implications?

In May, the regime had changed. The market just hadn't noticed yet.

Below, we break down what is truly driving markets right now — and what to expect over the next two weeks.

👇 Full report linked in comments.

Bitmine Lost $10 Billion. But Buried Inside the Wreckage Is a Free Call Option Nobody Is Pricing.

10x Research — Wed, 10 Jun 2026 01:15:00 GMT

Few investments have taught so many retail investors so much about NAV premiums, mNAV mechanics, and structural wealth transfers. The tuition was $4.6 billion. The actual losses are $10 billion.

Between July 2025 and June 2026, Bitmine raised $19.2 billion across 50 equity issuances, almost entirely through at-the-market offerings, and converted the proceeds into 5,543,872 ETH, equal to 4.6% of the circulating supply. That treasury is now worth $9.1 billion at $1,650 per ETH. Investors are sitting on a $10.1 billion loss, a 52% drawdown on invested capital. Two forces drove it.

The first is straightforward: ETH fell by 52% from the company’s weighted-average acquisition cost of $3,526. The second is structural. Investors repeatedly paid a premium to the underlying ETH net asset value when buying shares, overpaying by a cumulative $4.6 billion before the asset itself moved a dollar. Both losses arrived together.

We have been critical of Ethereum for the last eight months and warned against acquiring treasury exposure at elevated embedded costs. Prices have fallen sharply. Bitmine’s losses have ballooned to $10 billion. An Ethereum recovery in the near term looks unlikely. And yet, buried inside a deeply impaired balance sheet, there may be optionality that the current valuation does not begin to capture.

Ethereum (LHS) vs. Bitmine drawdown (RHS, $ billions)

The Road Nobody Owns: Has Ethereum Already Passed the Point of No Return?

10x Research — Tue, 09 Jun 2026 02:21:03 GMT

We have been bearish on Ethereum and vocal about its structural flaws since at least last October, when we identified it as the easier short of this bear market. At $3,800, there was little reason to own it, a view we published on October 31, 2025, and reiterated in a November CoinDesk interview. The DeFi narrative, we argued, was built on false hope, and the mid-2025 rally was built on little more than Bitmine flows, flows that evaporated once Bitmine’s mNAV collapsed to 1.0x and the mechanism for extracting value from retail investors had run its course.

Over time, a price and its underlying value cannot remain detached indefinitely. Once the Bitmine flows exhausted themselves, Ethereum had nothing left to hide behind, and prices gravitated back toward the only floor the fundamentals could justify.

Three weeks ago, we issued another high-conviction bearish call on ETH. Prices have since fallen by 26% and are now trading below the level at which value has historically emerged. That changes the calculus. Or does it? Prices have now fallen nearly 60% from those October highs, and we have reached a level where the bearish thesis warrants a stress test.

This may be one of the rare moments where buying Ethereum makes sense (see also here). Or not? But it may equally mark the beginning of a terminal decline, the point where a cyclical low and a structural break become indistinguishable until it is too late. We revisit Ethereum’s value proposition with fresh eyes and attempt to answer the question that now matters most: generational buying opportunity or value trap?

Ethereum (LHS) vs. Our trend model (RHS)

10x Weekly Crypto Kickoff – Bitcoin's Real Seller Isn't Who You Think

10x Research — Mon, 08 Jun 2026 01:11:05 GMT

After last week’s sharp selloff, Bitcoin sits in technically oversold territory, and a brief bounce early this week looks likely. But don’t mistake a relief rally for a recovery.

The market has spent the past month blaming the wrong suspect. The name everyone keeps citing isn’t the one doing the selling. Inside, we identify exactly who has been selling, why the popular narrative is wrong, the flow data that actually matters, and what comes next.

Main data points

Sharp crypto market correction with elevated volumes signals liquidations. The Crypto market cap stands at $2.13 trillion, -14.5% lower than the week before, with an average weekly volume of $117 billion, 47% higher than average. Weekly Bitcoin volume was $47.3 billion, 61% higher than average, while Ethereum volume was $23.2 billion, 77% higher than average. Ethereum network fees (0.14 Gwei) are in the 19th percentile, indicating low network usage.

Crypto Market Cap (LHS) vs. Trading Volumes (RHS)

The Clock Is Ticking for Bitcoin - Two Weeks. Two Events.

10x Research — Sun, 07 Jun 2026 01:27:50 GMT

Every report we write asks the same core question: has the regime changed, and if so, what caused it, and what are the implications? Markets are complex; every new data point can alter the trajectory.

That was precisely the exercise on May 16, 2026, when we published “Bitcoin Isn’t an Inflation Hedge. Here’s Why That Distinction Could Cost You.” We wrote:

“Dangerously in the current environment, Bitcoin is not an inflation hedge; it is a liquidity hedge. It rises when monetary conditions loosen and falls when they tighten. With markets now pricing 45 basis points of Fed tightening, a dramatic reversal from the 2.6 cuts priced in September 2025, the liquidity backdrop has turned materially hostile.

Oil prices are up 40% since the conflict in Iran began. CPI has risen from 2.4% to 3.8%. PPI has surged from 2.9% to 6.0%, with more in the pipeline. Bond markets have responded: the 2-year is back above 4.0%, the 10-year has reclaimed 4.5%, the 30-year has breached 5.0%.

The last two times this configuration deteriorated, Trump intervened, with tariff rollbacks and a ceasefire announcement. No equivalent backstop exists today. Macro data moves slowly; market attention moves erratically. The hardest thing to predict is not the data itself, but the moment investors decide to care. This week may have been that inflection point.

The FOMC’s June meeting will likely strip the easing bias from its statement. We are using Bitcoin’s 30-day moving average ($78,404) as our stop for long positions and view Ethereum as the cleaner short.”

That week was the inflection point. Bitcoin fell 23% from our stop. Ethereum, our preferred short, fell 30%. Many traders were surprised. Only those with the right framework have seen this coming. Below, we break down what is truly driving markets and what to expect over the next two weeks and beyond.

Bitcoin - The Clock is ticking. Two Weeks. Two Events.

Bitcoin's Gravitational Centre: A Pattern Precise Enough to Scare You

10x Research — Fri, 05 Jun 2026 02:46:37 GMT

There is a pattern in Bitcoin’s price history precise enough to project cycle peaks and troughs to within days, not weeks, not months, across a decade of the most chaotic asset ever created. It has called every major turning point. It carries a specific target for the cycle low. It carries a specific date. And it raises a question that is either unsettling or extraordinary, depending on how seriously you take it: Did Satoshi design this deliberately?

The full analysis, the pattern, the targets, the date, and why a 5,000-year-old calendar may be the most important chart in crypto, is inside.

Bitcoin vs. its 30-day moving average

Every Bitcoin Bull Market Has a Preacher. This One Has Run Out of Sermons. But a New One Is Coming.

10x Research — Wed, 03 Jun 2026 01:22:55 GMT

Some have raised concerns that quantum computing poses an existential threat to Bitcoin, and the strong correlation between Bitcoin and US software ETFs suggests both have been caught in the same AI-driven sentiment swings. But Bitcoin’s latest leg lower is better explained by macro forces than AI-related swings.

Bitcoin (LHS) vs. US Software IGV ETF (RHS)

In addition, the market is digesting MicroStrategy’s shift from accumulation to (expected) selective selling, a few coins here and there, not a forced liquidation event, with the latest $2 million selling a test run. That distinction matters. Managed selling is an overhang, not a crisis, and understanding the difference is part of understanding when this bear market ends.

MicroStrategy holds 843,706 BTC against combined debt and preferred stock obligations of approximately $22.2 billion. That implies an equity (worth) zero level of roughly $26,000 per Bitcoin, the price at which the BTC reserve no longer covers liabilities, and equity holders are wiped out. In a prolonged bear market, that threshold is not inconceivable, and institutional risk managers know exactly where it is.

Neither the quantum computing narrative nor MicroStrategy’s sales are the real drivers of this Bitcoin market. Both are noise. Below, we explain what investors should be watching and what the signal looks like when you zoom out. This is still a bottom formation process, but a new bull market will eventually emerge, we explain the exact (single) data point matters.

HYPE at $72: Overvalued, Fair Value, or the Next $100 Token?

10x Research — Tue, 02 Jun 2026 02:13:30 GMT

HYPE is 10x Research subscribers’ favorite token by a wide margin, nearly 70% named it their top pick in our May survey. The price has delivered, rallying 74% in a single month. But we’ve built a valuation model from scratch using 365 days of fee, volume, and user data, and what it shows gives us pause.

The platform’s fundamentals peaked in October 2025. Since then, fees are down 81%, revenue per user has collapsed 70%, and trading volumes have halved. The price hasn’t noticed it, until now, perhaps it should. We run the numbers on what HYPE is actually worth, what it would take to get to $100, and why June 6 is a date every HYPE holder should have circled on their calendar.

Together with our subscribers, we’ve been among HYPE’s most consistent bulls. In a market where genuinely compelling tokens are scarce, HYPE has earned its place in our top ten. But a 74% rally in a single month demands scrutiny, so we’ve drilled into the numbers to assess whether this move is sustainable, where the next leg could take it, and what fair value looks like.

HYPE-USDT (LHS) vs. Hype Token Trading Volume (RHS, $ billions)

10x Weekly Crypto Kickoff – Bottom Signal or Bull Trap?

10x Research — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 00:59:39 GMT

Several meaningful catalysts are converging in June that could prove significant for Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. When we called the start of the Bitcoin bear market in October, our initial expectation was for a cycle low to form around the FIFA World Cup, and while our trend model remains bearish and our high-conviction Ethereum short from two weeks ago is playing out, the bottoming process may already be underway ahead of that window.

Reversal indicators are beginning to flash signals that matter, both for short-term traders looking to position tactically and for longer-term investors seeking an entry point. Still, the headwinds are real and visible: ETF outflows, stablecoin contraction, and trading volumes at historic lows all point to near-zero conviction, but that is precisely the environment we anticipated for a major cycle bottom.

Below, we outline the indicators and catalysts now in focus, as well as the trades worth considering.

Ethereum (LHS) vs. ETH Dominance (RHS)

The 10x Research May Survey Called It: Long HYPE, Short ETH Returned 74%

10x Research — Sat, 30 May 2026 00:56:37 GMT

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About the Survey

Each month, 10x Research surveys its subscriber base, active traders, and sophisticated crypto investors to capture real-time sentiment, positioning, and forward expectations across Bitcoin, altcoins, and related asset classes. The May 2026 edition covered ten questions spanning near-term price outlook, year-end targets, allocation behavior, altcoin preferences, catalysts, risks, and relative performance expectations versus gold, equities, and crypto stocks. The results offer a rare ground-level view of how informed market participants are positioned.

Please find below the June Survey with our 12 question survey capturing sentiment, positioning, views and expectations. We will prepare a downloadable pdf with all the charts, interpretations, and survey results.

The 10x Research May Survey Called It: Long HYPE, Short ETH Returned 74%

Participate in the June Survey

Each month, this survey tracks how subscriber conviction evolves alongside market conditions. Click here to participate in the June survey.

Survey Sentiment From the May 10x Research Subscriber Survey

The May survey provided a meaningful read on subscriber positioning. Bitcoin sentiment leaned constructively bullish: 41% expected a +5% to +10% gain for the month, 20% anticipated +10% or more, and only 10% anticipated losses. On the year-end view, 60% see Bitcoin settling between $80k and $120k by December 2026, with just 8% holding above-$150k convictions. Allocation behavior confirmed the tilt, 50% of respondents had either slightly or significantly increased Bitcoin exposure over the prior two months, while only 14% had reduced it.

May Survey Expectations vs. Bitcoin’s actual performance

Overall sentiment was bullish-leaning: 44% bullish or strongly bullish against 28% bearish or strongly bearish. HYPE was the clear altcoin conviction trade, 40% named it most likely to outperform Bitcoin, while ETH led underperform expectations at 35%, followed by SOL at 27%.

On catalysts, (Micro)Strategy buying ranked first at 29%, ahead of regulatory clarity at 19% and Fed rate cuts/liquidity at 16%. The risk picture was unambiguous: macro risk dominated, accounting for 74% of responses and overwhelming every other concern. In the cross-asset comparison, 42% expected Bitcoin to outperform Gold, and 20% expected it to outperform the S&P 500. On crypto equities, subscribers were divided, 25% expected BTC to underperform MSTR specifically, while 25% saw rough parity.

What Actually Happened — Crypto Equities

Bitcoin fell by approximately 3% in May, making the crypto-equity performance chart even more striking. The outperformers had essentially no relationship with the Bitcoin price. Instead, the market rewarded companies that have successfully repositioned their power assets and data center capacity toward AI and HPC workloads. Hive Digital (+88%), Keel Infra (+87%), Hut 8 (+65%), Riot (+57%), Bitdeer (+55%), CleanSparks (+46%), and IREN (+40%) were re-rated as energy and compute infrastructure plays. Their value proposition is now measured in megawatts of deployable capacity and colocation agreements with hyperscalers, not hash rate or block rewards. Core Scientific (+34%) and TeraWulf (+34%), which have been among the most explicit about their AI pivot, delivered for the same reason. The market is effectively pricing these companies as data center infrastructure businesses with a crypto origin story.

Crypto Equity Performance in May

Circle (+28%) and Northern Data (+29%) reflect a separate theme, the broader re-rating of crypto-native financial infrastructure as institutional adoption accelerates and regulatory clarity improves.

The laggards tell an equally coherent story. BitGo (-40%) had no exposure to the AI trade. It is a custody and settlement business whose revenue is tied to trading volumes and assets under custody. Q1 earnings came in well below consensus, with sequential revenue down nearly 40% and adjusted EBITDA swinging to a loss, weighed down by IPO-related costs. A securities investigation announced shortly after the results added further pressure, and multiple analysts cut price targets. At its current price, the stock trades well below its January IPO price, representing one of the more painful post-IPO trajectories in the crypto equity universe.

Metaplanet (-11%) and Sharplink (-15%) are Bitcoin treasury vehicles whose NAV premiums compressed as spot prices softened. The market appears to be repricing the corporate Bitcoin wrapper narrative. Once spot exposure became readily accessible via ETFs, the justification for paying a premium to hold Bitcoin through a corporate structure weakened. MicroStrategy (-4%) showed the same dynamic on a smaller scale, trading roughly flat as the flywheel mechanism has become well understood and is unlikely to generate incremental re-rating without a rising Bitcoin price.

What Actually Happened — Cryptocurrencies

The winning cohort — NEAR (+83%), ZEC (+63%), HYPE (+62%), JTO (+54%), XLM (+52%), ONDO (+37%), and TON (+33%), shared a common thread: genuine utility catalysts or ecosystem-specific momentum rather than speculative narrative drift. NEAR benefited from renewed interest in AI-blockchain integration. HYPE reflected Hyperliquid’s continued dominance in on-chain perpetuals volume, with the protocol generating real fees and attracting sustained institutional attention. ZEC captured privacy token rotation amid dollar-weakness narratives. ONDO and TON represented the two strongest structural themes in crypto beyond Bitcoin, real-world asset tokenization, and a large captive user base converting to on-chain activity, respectively.

Crypto Currency Performance in May

The losing cohort is equally coherent. ETH (-12%), ARB (-18%), AAVE (-12%), and MKR (-12%) all belong to the Ethereum ecosystem, which continued to struggle with a narrative vacuum. Fee burn is declining, L2 cannibalization of base layer activity is real, and institutional allocators have not added ETH alongside their Bitcoin positions in any meaningful way. The ecosystem is technically functional but lacks a near-term re-rating catalyst. ENA (-17%) and PENGU (-19%) represent the two weakest market segments: yield-bearing synthetic stablecoins facing structural questions about sustainability, and pure meme and culture tokens with no durable bid outside speculative cycles. TRUMP (-18%) token has no fundamental support. ARB’s decline reflects the broader L2 dilemma, capturing Ethereum activity without capturing Ethereum valuation.

Survey vs. Reality

Subscribers correctly identified ETH as the most likely underperformer, 35% called it, and it delivered 12% underperformance against a field where many tokens rose sharply. The HYPE conviction also proved accurate, with 40% naming it the top outperform candidate and the token delivering +62%. This was a Long / Short spread of +74% relative performance. Where consensus missed was on the direction of crypto equities: most subscribers expected Bitcoin to roughly keep pace with or outperform MSTR and the miner complex, when in fact the AI infrastructure re-rating drove miners to extraordinary gains entirely disconnected from Bitcoin’s own -3% month.

Participate in the June Survey

Each month, this survey tracks how subscriber conviction evolves alongside market conditions — click here to participate in the June survey.

The Narrative Collapsed and Ethereum Is Cheap. Is ETH finally a buy?

10x Research — Fri, 29 May 2026 01:00:26 GMT

The Narrative Collapsed and Ethereum Is Cheap. Is ETH finally a buy?

The Ethereum options market is seeing unusually large put buying activity, with the $1,800 and $1,900 strikes attracting flows running approximately five times above normal levels. Since issuing our high-conviction short on May 16, 2026, Ethereum has declined 10%. But our bearish thesis predates that call. On October 31, 2025, with ETH trading at $3,800, we identified Ethereum as the smarter hedge. Prices have since fallen 47% (see also our interview from November). The thesis was always fundamental. The market is simply catching up.

In early April 2026, with Ethereum trading near $2,000, we revisited our fundamental view, examining whether the conditions for a buy had emerged and what the real structural issues were. Today, we return to that question. Ethereum is cheap. But cheap is not the same as a buying opportunity. Fundamentals ultimately determine price; marketing narratives can only sustain a divergence for so long before reality reasserts itself. We have seen that cycle play out once already. So what has changed? Let us approach Ethereum from a different angle entirely.

Ethereum (LHS) vs. ETH ETF Flows (RHS, $bn)

One Liners: Crypto Market Drivers — 6 Charts That Matter Now

10x Research — Thu, 28 May 2026 21:01:04 GMT

One-liners across all four coverage areas: Treasury Companies, Diversified Crypto, Bitcoin Mining, and Macro & Crypto FX.

Last week’s One Liners highlighted six setups worth watching, and the results speak for themselves. NEAR surged +40%, the standout call of the week. The crypto equity selections held up well through Wednesday and Thursday’s macro-driven correction: HIVE +15%, Core Scientific +13%, Marathon Digital +9%. TRX and HYPE absorbed the pullback and held broadly flat. Six assets, one week, meaningful returns, that is what disciplined setup selection looks like.

This Week’s Edition

This week’s One Liners cover 25 cryptocurrencies and 19 crypto equities, providing the broadest weekly snapshot of what moved, why it moved, and which catalysts could drive the next leg. The standout themes are highlighted below.

For busy investors, this context is the difference between reacting to price and anticipating it.

Keen to know which crypto currencies and which crypto equities look promising for the weeks ahead? Subscribers continue below for the full breakdown.

MicroStrategy Has Six Months. Bitcoin Has a Problem. Here Is Where the Returns Are Now.

10x Research — Wed, 27 May 2026 01:42:17 GMT

Are the wheels coming off, one by one? MicroStrategy’s signal that it may sell Bitcoin, with only six months of cash remaining to cover dividend obligations, strongly suggests the company will no longer serve as a meaningful buyer. That removes one of the most visible and consistent demand drivers of the past several years.

So where should investors look now, and how has the technical picture shifted?

Below, we address both our short- and longer-term views, and show where returns are still being generated even as Bitcoin becomes a headwind. Our altcoin model portfolio is up 24% over the past seven weeks (here); our crypto equity picks have returned an average of +28% over the same period. (Our thematic cross-asset space stocks portfolio has also returned +35% since April 3, 2026.) Opportunity has not disappeared, but finding it requires more creativity and a willingness to look beyond the obvious.

MicroStrategy BTC acquisitions (LHS, $ billions) vs. NAV (RHS)

Dead Money? Five Strategies Left for Bitcoin Treasury Companies at Steep Discounts

10x Research — Tue, 26 May 2026 04:56:50 GMT

When Grayscale’s GBTC was trading at a 47% discount in December 2022, we flagged it as an extraordinary opportunity. Investors could effectively buy Bitcoin at below $10,000 per coin. Closed-end funds routinely trade at a discount to NAV, but this one was so extreme that the investment thesis required only a single modest assumption: that GBTC would eventually convert to an ETF, within a 24-year window, if necessary, at which point the discount would collapse to zero and more than offset the 2% annual management fee.

That thesis played out. The discount narrowed sharply a year later as ETF approval came into view, and the following period saw dramatic NAV expansion across similar structures. Investors had convinced themselves that TradFi crypto wrappers were themselves a leveraged bet on the underlying asset, a premium on top of a premium.

They were not. These structures behave more like options: when volatility is elevated, implied value inflates; when volatility compresses, it deflates. This is why, a year ago, we warned that MicroStrategy’s NAV premium would compress sharply, a call made when the stock was trading at $400, just as Bitcoin’s volatility began its sustained decline. By August 2025, we went further, cautioning that NAV premiums across Bitcoin and Ethereum treasury vehicles could flip negative entirely, with many investors facing steep losses.

Those losses have arrived. But the picture is beginning to shift again, and for opportunistically well-positioned management teams, the dislocation now presents a fresh opportunity. A single announcement could double your money. Which of the five will it be? As before, the gains will likely come at the expense of investors who do not understand what they own.

$2.7 Billion in Bitcoin ETF Outflows Since Saylor Hinted MSTR Could Sell

The Trading System Built for Crypto Markets — Inside Your Dashboard

10x Research — Mon, 25 May 2026 10:17:59 GMT

10x Trading Signals gives subscribers access to a complete trading system integrated into our dashboard that covers cryptocurrencies and crypto equities. Each evening after the US session closes, our models identify trend changes, breakouts, and breakdowns across markets. The dashboard also features our Altcoin model portfolio, rebalanced periodically to reflect current market conditions and new opportunities.

Markets generate more data than any individual can process in real time. Price action across dozens of cryptocurrencies and crypto-related equities, overlaid with momentum readings, volatility regimes, funding dynamics, and options flow, creates an information overload that causes most traders to either ignore data they should act on or act on data they should ignore. The 10x Research Trading Signals Dashboard was built to solve that problem, not by simplifying the data, but by structuring it so that the most important signals are immediately visible, and the context required to interpret them is immediately accessible.

While our Market Update reports focus on Bitcoin’s daily price action, Trading Signals casts a wider net, including our Altcoin model portfolio, launched on April 9, 2026, which is up 24.2% versus Bitcoin’s 7% over the same period. Crypto equity signals have returned +26.7% on average since mid-April, compared to an 8% average return across cryptocurrency signals.

A trader trying to manually track trend states, momentum readings, breakout levels, and risk parameters across this universe would need to maintain dozens of spreadsheets, run daily calculations across multiple timeframes, and somehow integrate the results into a coherent picture before the market opens each morning.

The practical consequence of this complexity is that most traders narrow their focus to a handful of assets they feel comfortable with, missing the broader opportunity set. They hold losing positions too long because they lack a systematic stop-loss framework. They exit winning positions too early because they lack a model that signals the trend remains intact. They take outsized risks on volatile assets because they lack a mechanism to normalize position size to volatility.

The dashboard was designed to eliminate all these failure modes simultaneously. It does not require the traders to maintain their own calculations. It does not require judgment calls about which assets to monitor. It presents a pre-calculated, model-driven view of the entire investable universe, updated every day at 2 hours after the US market close, so that the trader’s only decision is whether to act on the models’ signals.

Even without a Trading Signals subscription, the attached trading rules and process guide stand on their own. If you’d like full access, you can subscribe here.

The attached Trading Signals Dashboard Manual helps new subscribers navigate the platform in just a few minutes, covering everything moving in crypto markets. It also includes 20 general trading rules and 20 rules specific to crypto, a reference guide you can return to anytime.

To access the Trading Signals dashboard (https://10xresearch.com/dashboard/), you need an active Trading Signals or CIO Strategy subscription.

We built a quick tool (Find Your Fit) to help you find the right publication, based on your portfolio size, trading horizon, and whether you focus on cryptocurrencies or crypto equities. It takes under 20 seconds.

For any questions, please contact us at info@10xresearch.com.

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Disclaimer: This email and any attached research are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any assets. 10x Research does not provide personalized investment advice and is not registered as a broker-dealer or investment adviser. Views are the authors’ own and subject to change. Please consult a qualified professional before making financial decisions. ©10x Research.

10x Weekly Crypto Kickoff – Fear Without Panic

10x Research — Mon, 25 May 2026 00:19:58 GMT

Bitcoin’s trend model has flipped to bear, ETF outflows have accelerated to $2.7 billion since May 7, and the “never sell” narrative that underpinned MicroStrategy’s premium valuation has cracked. Ethereum dominance has fallen below 10% for the first time since July 2025. Implied volatility is near historic lows. The map has changed.

This week’s Crypto Kickoff covers: Why ETF holders are selling, and whether flows can reverse without a catalyst. The inflation dynamic most Bitcoin investors have backwards, and why it matters now. Ethereum’s positioning: why the funding/price divergence sets up a potential forced unwind. Options market signals: what cheap vol is telling traders to do differently. The relative-value trade that remains our highest-conviction call, and the two names with genuine upside momentum.

Every Monday, we publish our Weekly Crypto Kickoff, a structured, data-driven briefing covering Bitcoin and Ethereum positioning, flow, liquidity, macro dynamics, options market signals, and overall crypto market structure. It is designed to give you everything that matters for the week ahead in a focused 12–15-minute read.

Crypto Market Cap (LHS, $ trillions) vs. Trading Volume (RHS, $ billions)

One Liners: Crypto Market Drivers — 6 Charts That Matter Now

10x Research — Fri, 22 May 2026 09:19:19 GMT

One-liners across all four coverage areas: Treasury Companies, Diversified Crypto, Bitcoin Mining, and Macro & Crypto FX.

This week’s report covers 7 cryptocurrencies, 14 crypto equities, and 5 macro assets, here are the highlights.

Hyperliquid surged 36% on dual ETF launches and a reported $90 million accumulation by a wallet linked to a16z. Zcash jumped 28% after the SEC closed its investigation with no action. Bitcoin held $78,000 as SpaceX disclosed an 18,000 BTC treasury position, now larger than Tesla’s. And MicroStrategy’s Saylor signaled the company may sell Bitcoin to cover dividends, quietly rewriting the treasury playbook the entire sector has been copying.

Full one-liners on every name, the miners repricing as AI infrastructure plays, and why Citadel just took a 3.7% stake in one of the most heavily loss-making companies in the sector.

The Crypto Alpha Illusion: Why Hedge Funds Missed the Regime Change That Changed Everything

10x Research — Wed, 20 May 2026 02:30:31 GMT

Bitcoin is on track to post its second consecutive flat year, a sequence with almost no precedent in its history. That alone would be remarkable. What makes it structurally significant is what it reveals about the market underneath: realized volatility has collapsed from 70% to 40%, funding rates have gone from 19% to 1%, and the retail speculation that powered a decade of outsized returns has quietly retreated.

The implications extend well beyond price. The strategies that defined crypto hedge fund performance were not products of skill. They were products of a market regime that no longer exists. Most crypto hedge funds had a negative 2025. The ones that didn’t were trading a fundamentally different playbook.

Understanding what changed, why it changed, and what the new playbook looks like is what separates capital positioned for this market from capital still positioned for the last one. This is what we explain below for our subscribers.

Bitcoin returns vs. Crypto Hedge Fund returns