Every Monday, we publish our Weekly Crypto Kickoff, a structured, data-driven briefing covering Bitcoin and Ethereum positioning, flow, liquidity, macro dynamics, options market signals, and overall crypto market structure. It is designed to give you everything that matters for the week ahead in a focused 12–15-minute read.

Bitcoin/Crypto Flows Year-to-date ($bn)

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We have identified three structural sources of this divergence, all tied to accelerating institutional themes. The implications for the basis trade are blunt. The famous carry, long spot, short futures, collect the premium, is not coming back anytime soon. It was a retail leverage phenomenon. Retail has been replaced by institutions that use Bitcoin futures for an entirely different purpose.

The negative funding rate cannot persist indefinitely. But it currently shows how sophisticated players in crypto are positioned, and what they are positioned in has very little to do with a directional view on Bitcoin. The simple cash-and-carry trade has been replaced.

Bitcoin Funding rate (average 30 days rolling, month end)

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CRYPTO CURRENCIES

Bitcoin — BTC remains in a bullish technical setup with a +5.3% weekly gain, supported by Strategy’s $2.54B purchase, exchange balances at multi-year lows, and nearly $1B in weekly ETF inflows, while the KelpDAO hack had minimal impact on price.

Ethereum — ETH is bullish on both moving averages with a +2% weekly gain, driven by consistent ETF inflows from BlackRock and Fidelity, a $90.9M leveraged whale long, and declining exchange reserves ahead of the Glamsterdam fork.

Solana — SOL is technically bullish (+3.1%), with five consecutive weeks of outpacing Ethereum in dApp revenue and 41% of DEX volume in Q1, though the KelpDAO hack caused short-term consolidation in the $83–$87 range.

Ripple — XRP is bullish across both timeframes (+3.6%), with seven straight days of ETF inflows, rapid whale accumulation, and the CLARITY Act approaching Senate markup, though RLUSD’s rise as a bridge asset threatens XRP’s core use case.

BNB Chain — BNB is fully bullish (+3.1%), becoming the leading blockchain for AI agent deployments with 150,000+ since January, while expanded perpetual futures trading and a pending Grayscale ETF application add further catalysts.

One-liners across all four coverage areas: Treasury Companies, Diversified Crypto, Bitcoin Mining, and Macro & Crypto FX.

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WHY THIS REPORT MATTERS

Crypto trading volumes remain subdued, and negative funding rates suggest many short-term traders are still positioned bearishly. The bear case often cited is that MicroStrategy is the only real buyer and that its capacity to accumulate is limited. Both observations have merit, but they miss the broader shift now underway.

April’s flow data show broad-based inflows across every major channel, and this improvement is arriving earlier in the cycle than in prior bear-market recoveries. Whether measured through on-chain analytics or direct market flow analysis, the signal is the same. When overlaid with the regime indicators that have historically distinguished bull from bear markets, a coherent pattern is emerging, pointing in one direction.

Below, we examine which investor groups are accumulating, as it’s no longer just MicroStrategy, where the key technical levels stand, and how the flow picture is shifting. Taken together, they reinforce the constructive view we have been building across recent reports.

Bitcoin related flow data - year to date (in $ billions)

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WHY THIS REPORT MATTERS

April 9 was a pivotal day for Bitcoin mining companies; some have since risen 50%. Most investors missed it. Our pattern analysis caught several of those moves (see Signals table). Crypto equities have been a rich source of alpha for both equity and crypto traders. Our CIO Strategy publication includes a weekly chart book on crypto equities and why stocks moved that week. Here is our current view across the three categories: diversified crypto equities, crypto treasury companies, and Bitcoin miners, and where we still see opportunities for the weeks ahead.

In our February 20 report, we flagged Circle as a short-squeeze candidate: with 18% of Circle shares being sold short, most of those shorts were underwater, and the earnings catalyst was imminent. Our valuation model puts Circle’s fair value in the $80–$120/130 range. Below $80 is cheap; above $120/130 is expensive. At current levels, the shares are mid-range, neither a compelling buy nor a reason to sell. By March 10, we rotated out of Circle and into direct Bitcoin beta via MicroStrategy, selling a covered call at the $160 June strike for $15 to manage downside.

Below, we break down the current opportunities in crypto equities.

Crypto equity performance since April 9, 2026

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Aave’s $180M bad debt crisis reveals that DeFi’s “money Lego” model has a fatal systemic flaw, a lending protocol is only as secure as the weakest bridge it accepts as collateral. Aave faces three recovery options, and whichever path the DAO chooses will set a precedent that reverberates across the entire DeFi lending landscape.

During the recent bull market, Aave’s Total Value Locked (TVL) peaked at $45BN. After hitting a floor of $23 billion in March 2026, the protocol showed signs of a strong recovery. While our technical indicators initially flagged AAVE-USDT as a high-probability buy, the recent KelpDAO bridge exploit triggered a 20% price collapse. This event erased months of growth, dragging TVL down from $26BN to $18BN, effectively returning it to late-2021 levels.

Aave now faces $180M in bad debt; its resolution will likely serve as a watershed moment for the broader DeFi ecosystem. With 2026 exploits already totaling $1BN, the industry is on pace to lose $3.3BN annually. This persistent $3BN “annual” drain (2024: $2.2BN; 2025: $3.4BN) is becoming a systemic risk that will inevitably invite more stringent regulatory oversight.

How Aave resolves this crisis will become the defining template for DeFi’s response to large-scale exploits, establishing an industry standard for how protocol losses get absorbed and who ultimately bears the cost.

Aave-USDT (LHS) - Aave-USDT trading volume (RHS, $M)

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This week’s Crypto Kickoff covers one of the most important sentiment shifts of 2026: real-money buyers have quietly returned to Bitcoin while crypto equities have already posted some of the strongest single-week returns of the year. ETF inflows are surging, stablecoin minting is at the 84th percentile, and AI-driven re-rating of Bitcoin miners is creating a powerful secondary tailwind.

But the rally is narrow, technicals are overbought, and the Iran wildcard looms larger than most realize. Inside, we break down: exactly what the options market is telling us about near-term risk, why ETH is lagging, and what that means for positioning, the critical price levels that must hold, and what to watch around the Kevin Warsh confirmation hearing this week.

Bitcoin ETFs just recorded their largest single-day inflow since January. Here is what historically happens next. Subscribers this week know the exact price levels where Bitcoin’s trend flips, which miners to own and which to avoid, and the one macro event that could reverse everything.

Crypto equities performance last 7 days

Crypto equities have been the stand out performer (here)

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This bear market is tracking similarly to 2022, but with differences in depth and duration worth understanding. In every prior cycle, Bitcoin hasn’t just fallen back to fair value; it has pushed 20% below it. In every bear market, that level remains a realistic target, and it’s one many traders have been vocal about in recent weeks. A move there would represent a meaningful further decline from current levels.

BUT: In this report, we explain whether Bitcoin’s struggle at $75,000–$76,000 is a tactical ceiling in a larger ongoing bear market, or something more significant. That distinction matters enormously for positioning. The indicator that gave us the clearest signal in January 2023, when we were among the first to call the end of that bear market and turned bullish ahead of most, needs to be analyzed more deeply. The charts below may be the most important thing we publish this week. They’ll tell you whether the crowd is early, late, or looking at the wrong thing entirely.

Bitcoin - resistance at $75,000/$76,000 - failure here?

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DIVERSIFIED CRYPTO EQUITIES

Bitcoin (+5.1%), Geopolitical de-escalation and a dovish Bank of Japan sparked a broad risk-on recovery. Institutional demand remained strong, with $523M in ETF inflows and MicroStrategy adding another 13,927 BTC.

Galaxy Digital (+31.5%), CEO Novogratz pivoted the firm toward AI and data center infrastructure, with the Helios Texas facility valued at over $15B. Galaxy was also named a key staking provider for BlackRock’s first yield-generating Ethereum ETP.

Coinbase (+12.1%), A new SEC-CFTC agreement on digital asset classification reduced compliance uncertainty for institutional clients. A New York lawsuit over historic offshore gaming transactions was largely shrugged off by the market.

Robinhood (+25.1%), The SEC scrapped the “pattern day trader” rule, removing the $25,000 minimum equity barrier for frequent retail traders. Crypto volumes are growing so fast that digital assets could become the firm’s largest revenue source within a year.

One-liners across all four coverage areas: Treasury Companies, Diversified Crypto, Bitcoin Mining, and Macro & Crypto FX.

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Bitcoin rallied 6.3% last week, and almost nobody in the futures market believed it. Funding rates collapsed to their lowest level on record. Shorts piled in. Volume dried up. On the surface, it looks like a rally built on nothing.

But beneath the skepticism, a different market is operating, one driven by institutional spot buyers, a systematic accumulation engine with billions of remaining capacity, and a specific price level where two independent sources of forced buying converge.

This report explains the mechanism. Traders who dismiss this rally as noise are not just wrong about direction; they are positioned directly in the path of flows they do not yet understand. The question is not whether those flows exist. The question is whether you see them before the market forces you to.

Bitcoin Futures Open Interest (LHS, $bn) vs. BTC Funding Rate (RHS)

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On Sunday, we published an urgent report, one that could not wait until Monday. A big move was forming, and the window was narrow. Trend-following funds were caught on the wrong side. In a thin market, unwinding and rebuilding those positions would send ripples far beyond the size of the trades themselves. Our internal trend-following model, which closely mirrors CTA positioning, had already flagged the shift. Sentiment, positioning, and flow data were all confirming the same thing. The technical setup had quietly turned constructive, and our Trading Signals were printing several high-probability setups simultaneously (here).

The pieces were in place. But the more important question now is whether this is the beginning of something larger, a new bull market with fresh all-time highs in its sights. To answer that, traders need to confront a factor the market has largely overlooked. Everyone is watching quantum computing. The threat is real, but the timeline is distant, 2030, perhaps 2035. What concerns us more is a structural problem that is already showing up in the data, one that could matter far sooner. We will lay it out below. For now, our focus remains on the immediate move, but we are holding the bigger picture close.

Bitcoin - narrowing triangle - a breakout looms

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Crypto markets bounced hard this week, but the wrong things moved, in the wrong order, on suspiciously thin volume. Bitcoin is now within striking distance of the level that will decide everything for the weeks ahead, and the options market is sending a signal that most traders are completely ignoring. The fear trade that dominated last week has been dramatically unwound, which sounds bullish until you look at what replaced it.

Sentiment has recovered, miners are ripping, and one single options trade in Ethereum is the most asymmetric bet we’ve seen in months. And yet the data underneath the surface tells a story of a market that is healing but not healed, recovering but not convinced. There is a specific price level in Bitcoin that, if broken, changes the entire thesis for Q2 (as we explained yesterday), and we are uncomfortably close to it right now. This week has a packed macro calendar that could be the catalyst in either direction.

Options flow initially dominated by put buying (notional, 1 week flows)

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Bitcoin traders should pay close attention to what is unfolding right now.

Bear markets are treacherous terrain for technical analysis. Indicators can linger in oversold territory for months, every tentative bounce can look like the real thing, until it isn’t. False dawns are a defining feature of prolonged downtrends, not an exception. Which is exactly why what is happening this week deserves serious scrutiny rather than reflexive optimism.

For months, we warned that 2026 would follow the playbook: a deep Bitcoin bear market, a weakened risk-asset tailwind, and a cycle low few would have the conviction to buy. That call played out almost exactly as scripted.

But something shifted this week, and it happened fast.

Just seven days ago, Bitcoin was clinging to razor-thin support, with flows drying up, liquidity absent, and market interest near its cycle low. We had identified Kevin Warsh’s Fed Chair confirmation hearing as a potential near-term catalyst, that hearing has since been postponed. And yet, paradoxically, the setup today looks more compelling than it did before his delay.

Technicals, flows, and positioning are doing something they haven’t done together in a long time, and when these forces align after a prolonged bear market, the implications tend to be significant. Whether this is the moment that matters, or another false signal, is exactly what this report addresses.

This is one of those reports you read twice. We considered it important enough that it could not wait until tomorrow, because the window to position ahead of what may be coming is open right now, and windows like this tend to close quickly.

Bitcoin (LHS) - trading into a narrowing triangle, which way will it break?

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Our latest cross-asset, thematic publication “10x What Matters”:

Beyond Space: 7 Stocks Positioned for the SpaceX IPO Trade. SpaceX is poised to break IPO records in the coming months as it evolves beyond a traditional aerospace company into a global infrastructure and technology platform. From a universe of 18 space-related equities, we have identified seven stocks best positioned to benefit disproportionately from this shift as a new growth segment emerges.

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CRYPTO CURRENCIES

Bitcoin (BTC) +8.1% Trump’s ceasefire post sparked the most aggressive short squeeze since early March, wiping out $427M in short positions and pushing BTC futures open interest to $49.5B. Despite the surge, the Coinbase Premium Index stayed negative; the rally was driven by leverage, not US spot buyers.

Ethereum (ETH) +7.7% The ceasefire catalyst liquidated $150M in ETH shorts in six hours, forcing a squeeze through $2,200 resistance to $2,250 on near-record volume. The Ethereum Foundation made its largest-ever single staking deposit while whales accumulated 230,000 ETH in a week.

Bitdeer (BTDR) +31.5% The launch of its SEALMINER A4 series, featuring proprietary chips at a leading efficiency of 9.45 J/TH, highlighted Bitdeer’s hardware edge. The Norway 180 MW AI data center deal with DCI reinforces its strategic pivot away from mining toward Nvidia-certified AI co-location.

Full list of one-liners below, including: Treasury Companies, Diversified Crypto Companies, Bitcoin Mining, Macro and Crypto Currency one-liners.

Bitdeer bounces from the support line (see also Trading Signal from March 18)

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Our regression model points to a clear answer, and the numbers may surprise you in both directions. Read the full report to see where BNB stands relative to fair value, what our 12-month model implies for price, and the specific level at which we believe BNB becomes a high-conviction buy.

BNB at lower channel support - a compelling buy? Or not cheap enough?

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The on-chain metrics that have called every major Bitcoin bottom over the last four cycles do not alert you at the low; they alert you in advance, giving long-term investors and tactical allocators the framework to act with conviction rather than panic when prices are falling, and sentiment is at its worst.

This report identifies the three indicators that matter most, the specific price levels they are pointing to in this cycle, and, critically, the one signal that has marked the beginning of every new Bitcoin bull market. Understanding what to watch for and why is the difference between catching the turn and missing it entirely.

Bitcoin’s cycles have historically unfolded with striking symmetry—though each time, the key risk is that this pattern breaks. Our call on October 28, 2022, marked the bear market low with precision, and our July 6, 2023 projection of a $125,000 cycle peak was grounded in patterns that have since proven highly accurate.

However, while cycle frameworks help define the broader path, on-chain indicators have consistently identified high-conviction entry points—often when market consensus is at its most bearish. The question now is whether those once-in-a-cycle entry conditions have been reached.

Bitcoin (log) vs. the signal that marked the cycle low

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Crypto trading volumes have declined sharply while positioning remains broadly neutral, creating a fragile market structure where even small orders can drive outsized price moves, often without follow-through in the absence of a clear catalyst. The market remains fixated on the Iran conflict, with consensus still anchored to a swift resolution, limiting risk repricing for now. At the same time, a notable divergence in flows between Bitcoin and Ethereum has emerged this year, even as both assets hover near key technical support levels.

With both implied and realized volatility subdued, optionality remains relatively cheap, and recent flows suggest increasingly one-sided positioning in the options market, pointing to growing asymmetry in expectations. Looking ahead, a mid-month catalyst looms, and the key question is whether traders begin to pre-position—potentially breaking the current low-conviction equilibrium.

Crypto Market Cap (LHS, $trn) vs. Trading Volumes (RHS, $bn)

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Ethereum has effectively been “dead money” for the past five years, trading around the $2,000 level it first reached during the last cycle. We have maintained a cautious, at times bearish, view since November, as on-chain activity has remained subdued, limiting both demand and meaningful value accrual for ETH holders.

Following a 57% decline from its August 2025 peak, however, Ethereum now appears relatively cheap, especially compared with Bitcoin, which is down roughly 42% over the same period. Despite significant mark-to-market losses, such as the roughly $8 billion drawdown in Ethereum treasury vehicles like Bitmine, accumulation has continued, while USDT issuance on Ethereum has recently outpaced issuance on Tron.

This has reignited the narrative that Ethereum could emerge as a key beneficiary of stablecoin growth and potentially serve as the financial backbone for a more on-chain, Wall Street-driven infrastructure. Against this backdrop, it is worth reassessing whether Ethereum is approaching a turning point or whether the structural headwinds that have defined its underperformance remain firmly in place.

Bitcoin (LHS) vs. Ethereum (RHS)

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Our latest cross-asset, thematic publication “10x What Matters”:

Beyond Space: 7 Stocks Positioned for the SpaceX IPO Trade. SpaceX is poised to break IPO records in the coming months as it evolves beyond a traditional aerospace company into a global infrastructure and technology platform. From a universe of 18 space-related equities, we have identified seven stocks best positioned to benefit disproportionately from this shift as a new growth segment emerges.

CRYPTO CURRENCIES

Bitcoin has outperformed altcoins but failed to attract meaningful capital, as liquidity and trading volumes have sharply declined.

Bitcoin’s trend remains fragile, with bear flag dynamics and low momentum reinforcing the need for selective positioning.

Token-specific catalysts are driving dispersion, with selective upside in LDO, ONDO, ZEC, and ALGO, while HYPE faces pressure from supply overhang and competition.

Bitcoin sentiment is stabilizing on ETF developments and regulatory expectations, though caution remains elevated.

Ethereum is supported by institutional staking demand and upcoming upgrades improving scalability and network efficiency.

Solana faces pressure from security issues and delayed upgrades, despite continued institutional infrastructure growth.

XRP is experiencing “sell-the-news” dynamics despite regulatory clarity, with institutional focus shifting toward infrastructure expansion.

BNB is expanding into real-world assets and commodities trading, aiming to capture volatility-driven market opportunities.

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Equities are responding to market-friendly headlines, but Bitcoin isn’t. Despite a solid rebound in the S&P 500, BTC has failed to follow, with ETF inflows remaining muted and U.S. investors actively selling into strength. This price action is unfolding in line with the framework we outlined in our Monday kickoff report and subsequent updates earlier in the week.

This is not a time for complacency or for relying on verbal assurances. It is a market driven by flows, technicals, and positioning, and once key levels break, moves tend to accelerate quickly as the dominoes begin to fall.

Bitcoin

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