Monetary policy and interest rates rank among the most important drivers of Bitcoin. With the US 10-year yield now at its highest close since 2007, a new regime is firmly in place.
Viewed over a 60-year horizon, US bond yields have moved in long, persistent waves: rising from the 1960s into the early 1980s, falling for four decades until 2020, and trending higher ever since. Yields do not simply mean-revert; they trend, and these trends take years, often decades, to play out. To frame where yields could be heading, we have built two fair value models.
Fair value is only part of the story. Just as important is why yields are rising and what the technical setup says about risk and reward from here. This report runs longer than usual because the topic is timely and the argument rests on several connected ideas: the fiscal regime shift, the term premium, the Fed’s new stance, and the yield chart setup. Each matters for how Bitcoin trades from here.
US 10-year Treasury yield and its 100-month moving average (%)
