Bitcoin is holding above its May high, and the Fed has largely ruled out an October hike. On paper, that is good news. Underneath, though, stablecoin supply is shrinking, money is leaving the ETFs, and options traders are paying the most for downside protection since the August rally. Ethereum is in worse shape. Its ETFs have had nine straight days of outflows, and our sentiment index fell from 78% to 32% in a week. Below, we look at what flows and options positioning suggest for the next two weeks, which levels we are watching, and how we would position.
Our Sunday/Monday kickoff covers the data behind this week’s market structure, flows, and positioning, along with the macro backdrop and technical levels that could change the picture over the coming days. Each week, we start from the data, add our interpretation, and show where the next moves are likely to come from.
Crypto Market Cap (LHS, $trn) vs. Trading Volumes (RHS)
