10x Weekly Crypto Kickoff – Fear Trade Unwinding, But Conviction Still Missing — Bitcoin Tests a Critical Level

The Week Ahead in Crypto Markets

Why this report matters. We break down the implications below:

Crypto markets bounced hard this week, but the wrong things moved, in the wrong order, on suspiciously thin volume. Bitcoin is now within striking distance of the level that will decide everything for the weeks ahead, and the options market is sending a signal that most traders are completely ignoring. The fear trade that dominated last week has been dramatically unwound, which sounds bullish until you look at what replaced it.

Sentiment has recovered, miners are ripping, and one single options trade in Ethereum is the most asymmetric bet we’ve seen in months. And yet the data underneath the surface tells a story of a market that is healing but not healed, recovering but not convinced. There is a specific price level in Bitcoin that, if broken, changes the entire thesis for Q2 (as we explained yesterday), and we are uncomfortably close to it right now. This week has a packed macro calendar that could be the catalyst in either direction.

Options flow initially dominated by put buying (notional, 1 week flows)