After the Magic: How Bitcoin Treasury Firms Must Evolve Beyond NAV Illusions

Actionable Market Insights

Why this report matters

The age of financial magic is ending for Bitcoin treasury companies. They conjured billions in paper wealth by issuing shares far above their real Bitcoin value—until the illusion vanished. Now, those once-celebrated NAV premiums have collapsed, leaving investors holding the empty cup while executives walked away with the gold. The question isn’t whether the trick worked—it’s what comes next when the smoke clears. With volatility falling and the easy gains gone, these firms face a hard pivot from marketing-driven momentum to real market discipline. The next act won’t be about magic—it will be about who can still generate alpha when the audience stops believing.

Boom/Bust: Digital Asset Treasury companies have seen their NAV deflate

Main argument

“Whoever can move the gold coins from one cup to the other without touching either the cups or the coins may keep them,” the magician announced, pointing to two cups before him—one filled with glittering coins, the other empty. The audience leaned in, puzzled. How could that be possible? The magician draped a cloth over the cups, whispered abracadabra, snapped his fingers, and lifted the cover. To everyone’s astonishment, the gold coins had somehow shifted from one cup to the other—without a single hand laid upon them. How was it done? Surely, it must have been magic - or not?