Bitcoin From $63K to $82K to $50K: Our Elliot Wave Count Is Playing Out. What's Left?
Before the Consensus Catches Up
Most traders have overlooked the insights from our Elliott Wave analysis, even as it has projected the bull and bear market moves with striking accuracy. In this report, we lay out the next important pieces of the puzzle.
In our December 19, 2025, report, “Trading the Reset: Bitcoin’s Path Through the Cycle Low,” we projected a decline toward $65,888, with a potential bottom forming during the FIFA World Cup. That call was built on our October report “Bear Market Watch: What Smart Money Is Seeing in Bitcoin’s Data”, in which we first flagged Bitcoin’s transition into a bear market and later, on February 5, 2026, “Bitcoin Cycle Low Level Identified – Out Elliot Wave Model Reveals the Exact Time & Zone”, revised our downside target to $50,000.
Bitcoin - revising our projected cycle low
But this bear market trades and feels nothing like 2022. Back then, we were fresh off the FTX conference in April, sentiment was still buoyant, and Bitcoin was trading near $40,000. We held our own conference in Singapore a month later, drawing 300 attendees, and sentiment was still strong.
One of my presentation slides showed that if the typical bear market cycle held, prices would decline for another six months and fall an additional 50% with a potential bottom in November 2022, but this was largely brushed aside. Nobody expected the typical bear market pattern to hold true.
In our Elliott Wave pattern report from February 5, 2026, we projected that Bitcoin would rally from Wave (A) around $63,000 to Wave (B) at $82,000 (within our projected $80,000–$90,000 range), followed by Wave (C), which we expect to send prices toward $50,000.
As Bitcoin approaches the $55,000 level, the remaining question is which catalyst could confirm the low, and we draw parallels to the 2022 bear market. We are also fine-tuning our projected Bitcoin low and answering the question of when we would be buying for the next structural leg higher. This report is meant to help investors navigate the final steps of this bear market, and often, the last steps are the most important.