Two days ago, Bitcoin tried to break out at $86,600. Today it is trading below $82,000. The S&P 500 also hit a new all-time high two days ago, but the move saw little follow-through and prices slipped back into the range. Some blame higher bond yields and oil prices, but Bitcoin holders shouldn’t worry about these macro variables most. As we explain below, another one matters more.
Bitcoin holders should also separate the short-term view from the medium-term one. Near-term events such as the midterm elections can heavily influence the short term, while the medium term is still driven by broader fundamentals.
The catalysts we identified previously depend on consensus and market pricing, so we will revisit them early next week, shortly before they arrive. Below, we explain what is driving the current repricing and set out our short- and medium-term views and positioning.
A lot is happening, and several points deserve their own reports, which will follow. The technical picture alone deserves a separate report, since today’s is already long.
Bitcoin: resistance area $82,000 to $87,000 - Stay Long or Cut Exposure?
