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👇1-11) Generating consistent returns with altcoins has become increasingly challenging during this bull market. There was essentially only one brief window of strong altcoin performance—between the November 5 election and the December 6/9 U.S. employment report—which signaled a stronger-than-expected economy and served as a precursor to the hawkish mid-December FOMC meeting.
Bitcoin dominance (LHS, %) vs. Crypto Market Cap (RHS, $ trillions)
👇2-11) A holistic market analysis and investment process is essential for identifying when the odds are in your favor and when to bet big. While we have several positive signals—including on-chain data, seasonality trends, breakout indicators, the Chinese New Year effect, a more neutral Fed, and a crypto-friendly President—one key ingredient has been missing: support from market structure data.
👇3-11) However, this missing link could strengthen at any moment, potentially aligning all factors for a high-probability bullish setup. One key signal supporting this view is the declining total supply held by long-term holders—a historically bullish indicator. Based on our analysis, sharp declines in long-term holder supply (purple line) have frequently coincided with strong Bitcoin rallies (white line), as seen in Q1 and Q4 of 2024. As long as long-term holders continue reducing their balances, Bitcoin remains at risk of a short squeeze to the upside.