Bitcoin: The Time and Price That Will Likely Mark the 'Cycle' Low

Before the Consensus Catches Up

The US dollar is strengthening on multiple fronts, and history is unambiguous about what that means for Bitcoin. Our USD model has triggered only six times since 2011; the last was in November 2025, and Bitcoin declined in the months that followed.

Meanwhile, the global liquidity indicator that swept through crypto circles last year has been widely misread. Used correctly, it has continued to deliver: it flagged a buy in early March and an exit in late April. We know when it will likely trigger next.

In this report, we tie together the forces driving Bitcoin and map the events most likely to mark the low, and identify the price level that will represent genuine value. A roadmap, not a guess.

Read on for the full framework, the timing, and the price. The window that will likely mark the low of this bear market is approaching. Below, we map exactly when it opens and what Bitcoin level represents genuine value.

Bitcoin (LHS) vs. Money Supply (RHS, $trn) - looking at it the wrong way !!!