Blinded by Liquidity: Bitcoin’s False Prophet

Actionable Market Insights

Why This Report Matters

Bitcoin continues to climb, but the story behind the rally may not be what most investors think. At the center of it all is a seductive narrative—one that promises clarity through the lens of global liquidity. The charts look convincing, the correlation looks strong… until it suddenly isn’t. History has shown how quickly conviction can turn into complacency. What if the most widely accepted explanation for Bitcoin’s move is also its biggest risk? We unpack the cracks forming beneath the surface, and what savvy investors need to watch before the next move surprises the crowd.

Bitcoin vs. Liquidity - can popular beliefs overpower history?

Main Argument

Macro theories often capture investors' imaginations, but the reality is less glamorous. Over the past two decades, macro investing has been one of the most challenging strategies for hedge funds. Notably, legends like Soros and Druckenmiller based much of their success on bottom-up analysis, despite being labeled macro investors. Peter Thiel also found early success in macro before ultimately returning to his roots in tech-focused venture capital. And economists? They’re notoriously unreliable when it comes to forecasting economic data.

While macro commentary often sounds intellectually compelling, relying solely on this lens rarely leads to consistent investment success. More often, it functions as a narrative device for Wall Street rather than a practical framework for generating returns.

Peter Thiel is known for asking a provocative question to test contrarian thinking: “Tell me something that’s true that almost nobody agrees with you on.” But this question can just as easily be flipped: “Tell me something that’s false that almost nobody disagrees with you on.” Both versions are designed to uncover originality of thought and the courage to challenge consensus, even when it’s unpopular. We believe the claim that Bitcoin is driven solely by liquidity is flawed, and below, we explain why that narrative doesn’t hold up.

History shows that popular narratives, no matter how flawed, can persist for generations. People once believed the Earth was flat or that the sun revolved around it. Humans have always been drawn to simple, elegant explanations to make sense of complex realities. Catchy phrases and easy-to-digest narratives often win the conversation, regardless of accuracy.