Buy or Sell Coinbase? And What $195 Billion in Bitcoin Inflows Tells Us about the Next 5 Months?

Actionable Market Insights

Why this report matters

Bitcoin just posted its strongest breakout since 2024—fueled by a sharp surge in inflows, call buying, and one of the largest short liquidations in years. But with implied volatility fading and the options market now aggressively pricing in a $140K year-end target, are traders too far ahead of themselves?

Retail volume is exploding in Korea, and altcoins are ripping—but the inflow math may be telling a different story. Meanwhile, Coinbase is now trading at a 22% premium to Bitcoin, near the top of its historical range. Is this the time to stay long, hedge, or fade the rally? The capital flow data, trend model shifts, and derivatives signals in this report reveal what’s likely next—and where the risk/reward is most asymmetric.

Bitcoin (LHS) vs. Coinbase (RHS), +107% since our May 12 report

Main argument

On June 24 (here), we turned bullish Bitcoin as it approached the end of a six-week consolidation. Anticipating a July breakout, we recommended going long Bitcoin at $104,000 while selling the $115,000 July 25 call, expecting a +10% move and viewing the call sale as an attractive yield enhancement. At the time, the call offered an 18% annualized yield, in addition to Bitcoin exposure.

That option, originally priced at $1,560, is now trading around $2,990 with just three days to expiry. While the call has moved against us by $1,400, the long Bitcoin leg is up $13,400, resulting in a net gain of $12,000 (so far). And with consolidation likely to occur into the July 25 option expiry, the call option could still lose value, ultimately capturing the yield we initially targeted.