Crypto Retail Traders Missed Out on $800 Billion — and It Might Be Forever.

Actionable Market Insights

Why this report matters

Altcoins have underperformed Bitcoin by an astonishing $800 billion this cycle — and retail investors are the ones left behind. While social media continues to promise the next “alt season,” the data tells a different story. Our models show a decisive rotation back into Bitcoin, even as Korean retail traders, once the heart of altcoin speculation, shift their focus to U.S. crypto stocks. Liquidity, momentum, and conviction have all migrated elsewhere, leaving the altcoin market eerily quiet. Meanwhile, institutions are shaping this cycle in ways few expected — and retail may not yet realize what that means.

Bitcoin (LHS) vs. Our Tactical Model, currently BTC > Altcoins (RHS)

Main argument

Altcoins have underperformed Bitcoin by roughly $800 billion this cycle — a shortfall that would have largely benefited retail investors in previous bull markets. This time, many retail traders appear to be missing out and are instead seeking alternative avenues for quick returns.

While commentators have repeatedly promised explosive altcoin rallies over the past one to two years, each surge has quickly fizzled out, lacking any fundamental support to sustain momentum. A disciplined approach, trading such moves tactically and selectively, has proven to be the right strategy, just as we have consistently emphasized.

Over the past 30 days, our tactical altcoin model has favored Bitcoin over altcoins, reflecting a bottoming out in Bitcoin dominance. This shift follows a 75-day period in which the model preferred altcoins, a phase that coincided with Ethereum’s rally, but that trend has clearly ended. The model’s pivot back toward Bitcoin came at a critical moment, two weeks before altcoins suffered a sharp sell-off on October 11, 2025.