10x Research Market Updates

10x Research Market Updates

Share this post

10x Research Market Updates
10x Research Market Updates
Despite the Fed’s Pause, a Crucial Macro Signal Just Turned Bullish for Bitcoin

Despite the Fed’s Pause, a Crucial Macro Signal Just Turned Bullish for Bitcoin

Actionable Market Insights

10x Research's avatar
10x Research
Jun 16, 2025
∙ Paid
12

Share this post

10x Research Market Updates
10x Research Market Updates
Despite the Fed’s Pause, a Crucial Macro Signal Just Turned Bullish for Bitcoin
1
Share

Why this report matters

As markets digest rising oil prices and resilient bond yields, mixed labor data, and cautious Fed signals, Bitcoin is quietly strengthening its macro case. Altcoin treasury holdings (ADA, DOT) are potentially pivoting to Bitcoin, and credit conditions are telling a story few are watching. Beneath the surface, subtle shifts in momentum could be laying the groundwork for a major move later this year. However, not all signals point upward, timing and positioning will be crucial.

We identified $106,000 as the key line in the sand, and over the past month, Bitcoin has consolidated around this level, trading within a tight ±4% range. The longer this range-bound behavior continues, the greater the likelihood of a breakout. Fed Chair Powell is expected to maintain a neutral stance at this week’s FOMC meeting, offering little immediate catalyst to shift the market tone.

The US labor market is not weaking fast enough for the Fed to turn dovish.

Main argument

Bitcoin is unlikely to be significantly impacted by the Israel-Iran conflict from now on, though its consolidation phase may persist due to other factors. On-chain metrics remain supportive, suggesting any corrections should be relatively shallow as long as prices stay above $100,437. With little prospect of dovish support from Fed Chair Powell and a risk of rising 10-year U.S. bond yields, despite a softening labor market, macro conditions may keep Bitcoin range-bound in the short term as the summer seasonality kicks in. But beneath the surface, a key medium- to long-term macro signal has just turned bullish

This post is for paid subscribers

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2025 10x Research
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture

Share