Early, Hawkish, and Often Wrong: Why Kevin Warsh’s Economic Worldview Matters for Markets and Bitcoin

Actionable Market Insights

Why this report matters

White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett had appeared close to securing Donald Trump’s backing for the Fed chair nomination. Still, momentum faded after pushback from prominent Wall Street investors and a television interview in which Hassett struck a cautious, data-dependent tone rather than advocating aggressive rate cuts. That performance reportedly raised doubts within Trump’s circle, with some arguing Hassett would not be the kind of unquestioning Fed chair Trump expects.

As a result, another “trial balloon” emerged as Trump met again with Kevin Warsh to gauge how markets might respond to an alternative nominee. Trump has been openly critical of his 2017 decision to appoint Jay Powell, which has made him more hesitant about whom he can truly trust this time. Notably, Warsh was also interviewed in 2017 but was passed over in favor of Powell, who then supported the Fed’s easy-money stances, something Warsh opposed.

Based on prediction markets, the odds of Hassett securing the nomination have fallen sharply, dropping from 75% to 56%, while Warsh’s chances have risen significantly, climbing from 13% to 36%. Below, we examine Warsh’s economic track record, his stance on easy monetary policy, and how his framework shapes his views on Bitcoin.

Probability of being nominated as the next Fed Chair by Trump