How Much Bitcoin Should a Multi-Asset Portfolio Hold?
Stop Guessing. Run the Numbers.
Ask ten allocators how much Bitcoin a diversified portfolio should hold, and you will get ten different numbers, delivered with roughly equal confidence. One percent, because it is “just in case.” Five percent, because that is what the last conference panel settled on. Forty percent, because someone believes the fiat system ends this decade. None of these numbers come from a framework. They come from a feeling, anchored to whatever number the person heard most recently repeated.
That is not a criticism of any individual view on Bitcoin. It criticizes how portfolio sizing gets decided once a view exists. Believing Bitcoin will outperform equities over the next year is a forecast. Turning that forecast into a specific portfolio weight- 3%, 10%, 25%- is a completely different problem, and it is the one almost everyone skips.
For 10x Research subscribers, we built a framework that doesn’t skip it, and this issue explains how it works and why we think it is the right way to answer the question every allocator with a Bitcoin view eventually has to answer: not “will it go up,” but “how much.”
