Is Circle No Longer Dependent on Crypto Markets? — And Why It Matters
Before the Consensus Catches Up
Most investors seem to have been caught off guard by Q2 earnings and management guidance, with nearly every crypto stock declining after reporting. Expectations should already have been low; Bitcoin fell 14% in Q2 and crypto trading volumes dropped 12% QoQ, yet guidance still came in more conservative than that backdrop implied.
While some analysts seemed surprised that USDC circulation growth was stalling and that real-world utility beyond remittances and card-linked spending remained limited, we flagged this months ago as part of our bearish thesis. This latest earnings report, however, may mark an important turning point.
Our strategy was to pick up Circle shares after its earnings, anticipating share-price weakness post-earnings announcement. We suggested buying it on that weakness: the stock did drop to the $60–61 range, but has since rebounded to $71 (+16%) in less than a week. Below, we walk through the key takeaways and whether Circle is a buy or a sell at current levels.
USDC momentum is stalling. Are we concerned?
