Is Circle’s IPO the Next Coinbase Moment—or a Signal to Sell Bitcoin?

Actionable Market Insights

Why this report matters

Crypto markets just witnessed another major milestone: Circle’s IPO. The listing was met with feverish demand and a near 200% rally—but is that a bullish endorsement, or déjà vu of Coinbase’s euphoric peak in 2021? Behind the headlines lies a subtle shift in market structure, driven by a new wave of IPOs, a widening arbitrage game, and platform profits that dwarf those of most DeFi protocols.

Bitcoin often reaches local peaks around the launch of new financial products

Meanwhile, Bitcoin's rally is showing signs of fatigue, and macroeconomic uncertainties are beginning to take a bite. Could this be the summer Wall Street starts reallocating—from Bitcoin to IPO darlings? Our latest deep dive breaks down what’s driving flows—and where smart capital might go next.

Main arguments

We turned cautious on Bitcoin as of May 25 (BTC @ $108,500) and recommended locking in profits. Since then, our trading signals have flagged several short opportunities—most notably, the SOL-USDT short has returned 11%, while NEAR, AVAX, and HBAR are each down roughly 20%. Our report, “10 Bearish Signals Bitcoin Bulls Are Ignoring Right Now,” remains highly relevant, though new concerns are beginning to emerge. One of them is MicroStrategy, which increasingly looks tapped out; last week’s purchase totaled just $75 million, its smallest in recent months. All eyes will be on whether they skip this weekend’s expected buy, which could further signal waning institutional momentum.