Our Bitcoin Bounce Playbook: Short-Term vs. Medium-Term

Before the Consensus Catches Up

Market worries about MicroStrategy have notably moved back into the background, consistent with the mean-reversion chart in our June 26 report, which flagged the potential for a snapback rally. Prices have indeed rallied from $82 to $100 in just one week. We also flagged some interesting setups in Saturday’s Trading Signals brief, “These Cryptos Flash Dual Reversal Signals.”

That said, the broader context still matters, and traders must distinguish among short-, medium-, and long-term horizons. Somewhat unexpectedly, we’ve now reached a point where sentiment is very low, as reflected in $9 billion in Bitcoin ETF outflows over the last two months, alongside notably lower trading volumes.

This is precisely the scenario we outlined seven months ago, back in December. Bitcoin is now trading at $63,826, close to our $65,888 target from that December report. That said, we have since adjusted this target, as our monthly cycle charts have not yet turned.

Even at this point, there are still several trades traders can put on; it just depends on how tactical they want to be. There’s a clear distinction between short-term and medium-term views here, which matters especially as we approach these pivotal levels and catalysts.

Bitcoin (LHS) vs. our Greed & Fear Index (RHS) - tradeable bottom?