Fed Chair Warsh notched a credibility win as every Fed governor lined up behind his hawkish stance that inflation remains too high. The Fed cited a stronger labor market as one justification, but that’s a stretch; job growth this year has only barely cleared the breakeven rate, averaging 81k per month against current estimates putting breakeven anywhere from 20-90k.
The real driver was the market forcing the Fed’s hand: higher oil prices pushed hawkish repricing that the Fed ultimately validated. With one more hike still expected this year, this fits the classic hiking sequence, and the key variable now is the US dollar. A stronger dollar has historically been bearish for Bitcoin.
Investors should keep in mind that conditions can shift quickly. A year ago, markets were promised a dovish Fed chair; instead, we got a hawkish one. Three rate cuts were expected in 2026; instead, we’ve gotten two hikes (likely). An energy oversupply was promised; instead we have shortages and $100 oil. Trillions in tariff revenue were promised; instead, US debt has eclipsed $40 trillion. The macro backdrop can turn fast, and investors need to be ready to react.
Considering all this, how does our positioning change from buying protection into the FOMC meeting, when the risk of a more hawkish outcome was high, based on the historical precedent of how these hiking cycles tend to start? How should we be positioned now?
10-year treasury yield
