The Bitcoin Signals That Matter Most Are Turning
Before the Consensus Catches Up
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WHY THIS REPORT MATTERS
Crypto trading volumes remain subdued, and negative funding rates suggest many short-term traders are still positioned bearishly. The bear case often cited is that MicroStrategy is the only real buyer and that its capacity to accumulate is limited. Both observations have merit, but they miss the broader shift now underway.
April’s flow data show broad-based inflows across every major channel, and this improvement is arriving earlier in the cycle than in prior bear-market recoveries. Whether measured through on-chain analytics or direct market flow analysis, the signal is the same. When overlaid with the regime indicators that have historically distinguished bull from bear markets, a coherent pattern is emerging, pointing in one direction.
Below, we examine which investor groups are accumulating, as it’s no longer just MicroStrategy, where the key technical levels stand, and how the flow picture is shifting. Taken together, they reinforce the constructive view we have been building across recent reports.
Bitcoin related flow data - year to date (in $ billions)
