The Real Reason Bitcoin Is Falling Isn't MicroStrategy’s $93 billion loss

Before the Consensus Catches Up

Many traders are searching for someone to blame for Bitcoin’s relentless decline, and MicroStrategy has become the convenient target. The logic is superficially intuitive; the NAV collapse has curtailed their ability to accumulate aggressively (see our November 13, 2025 report: “MicroStrategy Shareholders Lost Everything. Can They Lose Even More?“), but the attribution is wrong, and getting it wrong is costly. Missing the real driver means missing the turn.

The data is beginning to surface early arguments for why that turn may be approaching. We are not there yet, but understanding who is selling and why is the essential preparation. When the wave comes, you want to be positioned before it breaks, not scrambling to catch up after.

Bitcoin (LHS) vs. MicroStrategy BTC Purchases (RHS, $bn)