The Signals No One Noticed - Before Bitcoin Jumped 24%
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
Bitcoin just hit a new all-time high—but our data suggests the story is far from over. Behind the scenes, key signals are flashing again, and some are eerily similar to those we saw before past market reversals. Volatility is back, liquidity is shifting, and once again, the crowd may be looking the wrong way. A little-known model that predicted the March rebound remains active, having already delivered a 24% return. But when will conviction fade?
Main Argument
Even for long-term Bitcoin holders, we’ve consistently demonstrated our ability to generate alpha, outperforming Bitcoin during the Q1 2025 correction and pinpointing key moments where a leveraged long position offered significantly enhanced returns.
An asset entering its fifth bull market in just 15 years naturally provides ample volatility—an opportunity, not a risk, when approached with the proper framework. What sets our process apart is the integration of macro and liquidity analysis, combined with market structure insights, on-chain data, and quantitative models. This holistic approach has enabled us to make numerous well-timed market calls and remain ahead of major inflection points.
This model predicted all the massive Bitcoin rallies
As anticipated, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high this week. With that milestone now achieved, our attention is shifting gradually toward identifying the potential subsequent bearish reversal. In January 2025, we began flagging the emergence of a Diamond Top pattern. This early warning ultimately led to the breakdown of the Ascending Broadening Wedge once Bitcoin fell below our key bearish trigger at $95,000.
While our downside target of $73,000 was narrowly missed by less than 2%, we started receiving bullish signals shortly thereafter. On March 26, we issued our “Bitcoin – Alpha Alert” report, noting that our funding rate model had just triggered a buy signal with a three-month time horizon, marking a meaningful shift in our outlook. We rely on a range of such models, and although they trigger infrequently, they tend to coincide with periods where we grow more confident in the potential for a sharp rally.
While Bitcoin experienced a brief decline after the signal was triggered, the model itself has a strong historical track record, showing a 77% probability of a positive return over the following three months, with a median gain of +31%. Similar signals were flagged in September 2023 and August 2024, both of which preceded significant price moves. The most recent signal remains active and has already delivered a +24% return, serving as one of many pillars in the broader framework of models and data points we monitor daily.
10x Research turned bullish right before the ramp up
Given Bitcoin's high volatility and its tendency to trend over extended periods, our trend-following models have proven highly effective in capturing major price moves. Most recently, they identified the September to December 2024 rally, the February to April 2025 correction, and the subsequent rebound from April 2025, following Bitcoin's return above $84,500.
On April 22, our system also generated a new range-trading signal with a median expected return of +25%, setting an upside target of $116,000. That same day, we saw a shorter-term breakout signal, followed by a longer-term confirmation on May 9—both of which are now firmly in the money. It’s the confluence of these signals, across timeframes and methodologies, which gives us a high degree of conviction in our outlook.