Tide Turns: Bitcoin $$$ Inflows Reignite Rally - $100,000 Possible
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We now include a conclusion at the end of each report to help readers quickly grasp the key takeaways and core message.
Topics: Bitcoin Technicals, Money Flow, Leverage, LiquidationsTide Turns: Bitcoin $$$ Inflows Reignite Rally
👇1-10) As anticipated, Bitcoin has resumed its bullish trend. The next key resistance zone lies in the $94,000–$95,000 range, which aligns with our target for this move. However, whether this level can be decisively broken will depend heavily on broader market sentiment and the performance of risk assets.
Bitcoin: Our Trend Model Flipped bullish last week
👇2-10) This week highlights the core value of our research: identifying shifts in risk/reward and signaling when markets transition from bearish to bullish and vice versa. We reinforced this view with a technical analysis video released two days ago (here), which reemphasized and predicted this Bitcoin breakout.
👇3-10) This is the week when several key trade deals are expected to be finalized. Yet, Trump appears to be backing down on two major fronts—softening his tariff rhetoric after China called his bluff and easing his push for Powell’s resignation. These developments are contributing to a broader risk-on sentiment, which was already anticipated by our trend-following indicators.
Bitcoin: As pointed out in our April 13 report, bullish break higher
👇4-10) Bitcoin has rallied over 10% since we adopted a more constructive view on April 12 (here), highlighting bullish technical indicators and a more favorable risk/reward setup on the long side. Our trend model also turned positive, mirroring CTA-style systems, which helped anticipate the wave of systematic buying that followed (here).
👇5-10) This reinforces the value of running a CTA model in the background for directional insight. While we remain cautious about Bitcoin mining stocks overall, our strategy report (here) noted that Bitdeer was trading at an attractive level and surged 23% last night.
👇6-10) However, given that our stablecoin minting indicator has yet to return to high-activity levels, we remain cautious about the sustainability of the current Bitcoin rally. While a measured move from the falling wedge pattern suggests a potential upside toward $98,000–$99,000, the absence of strong stablecoin inflows raises questions about follow-through. That said, inflows have begun to pick up, and if uncertainty continues to decline, a further acceleration could provide the liquidity needed to support a more sustained rally.
Bitcoin (LHS) vs. Stablecoin Minting Indicator (RHS)
👇7-10) While stablecoin inflows have been rising steadily, Bitcoin has faced headwinds from a contraction in ETF flows and, more significantly, a decline in futures positioning since the hawkish December Fed meeting—pressure that has weighed on the market since late January.
👇8-10) However, a recent rebound in futures leverage has been a major driver of the latest rally, with our Money Inflows Indicator jumping to $146.3 billion in cumulative inflows since January 2024. Notably, Bitcoin ETFs just recorded their strongest day of inflows since January 17, 2025, likely surpassing $1 billion. This shift suggests the tide may be turning, adding fresh momentum to the ongoing rally.
Bitcoin (LHS) vs. Money / Liquidity indicators (RHS, $ billions)
👇9-10) The $95,000 level serves as a key resistance zone and a potential trigger point for short stop liquidations, which could propel Bitcoin sharply higher if market strength continues. So far, liquidation activity has remained modest, but we expect it to pick up.
👇10-10) Futures open interest has already climbed from $22 billion to $29 billion, acting as a major driver of the current rally. If Bitcoin ETF inflows accelerate and stablecoin minting resumes, as investor confidence returns and Trump’s tariff threats prove more rhetoric than reality, Bitcoin could plausibly break above the $100,000 mark.
Bitcoin Liquidations (LHS, $ millions) vs. Futures OI (RHS, $ billions)
