Upbit, Kraken, OKX Race to List as Retail Traders Get Wiped Out - Is it too late?
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
We’ve reached the point in the cycle where crypto influencers are pivoting to cooking channels in search of the next wave of audience demand. Of the 138 coins we tracked a year ago, only six have delivered a positive return. Strangely, crypto exchange OKX’s OKB token is the second-best performer, despite retail investors being decimated this year by the altcoin collapse and the implosion of digital-asset treasury companies.
This is precisely why one of our key early-2025 recommendations was to hedge Bitcoin with a basket of altcoin perpetual futures rather than hold individual tokens (see our January 14, 2025 report). The average altcoin is down -59% this year with 94% of those “top” altcoins having lost money.
Top 138 altcoins a year ago: 94% lost money this year
This is why retail crypto trading has become a sideshow, with the real liquidity and price discovery now driven by institutional players. This explains why retail volumes have been shockingly low this cycle and why new wallet growth has remained muted, market influence is concentrated among a handful of large participants.
Other retail-focused exchange tokens have also surged: BGB is up +113%, WhiteBIT +149% (see our May 12, 2025 report when WhiteBIT was at $30), and Binance’s BNB is up +25% during the last year. It’s remarkable, and somewhat paradoxical, that (retail) exchange tokens are rallying while nearly the entire crypto (retail) market has been wiped out. Will these (soon to be listed) three exchanges (Upbit, Kraken, OKX) fare any better than Bullish and Gemini, which have known only one direction since the day they listed?
Bitcoin (LHS, log) vs. Number of New Addresses (RHS)
