What $15 Billion in Silent Bitcoin Buying Means for July
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
Many crypto traders remain on the sidelines or underexposed, even as Bitcoin breaks out amid a rare alignment of forces: surging ETF flows, shifting policy dynamics, and mounting political pressure all converge at once. Despite weeks of consolidation, $15 billion in silent ETF buying has continued without pause. Now, underexposed traders are being forced back into the market, and the technicals suggest this move might just be getting started.
Bitcoin ETF flows - $15 billion net buying since mid-April
Meanwhile, Ethereum, Solana, and other altcoins are breaking key trendlines at a moment when U.S. crypto policy could ignite fresh momentum. Add to that a potentially benign inflation report and a Fed narrative under siege, and you have a setup too important to ignore. What comes next could define the rest of the summer for crypto.
Main argument
The Bitcoin breakout is unfolding in line with our expectation (here) that July could deliver new all-time highs (here). Following Bitcoin’s trend breakout on June 29, similar signals have emerged across Ethereum, Ripple, and Solana, suggesting a broader bullish shift across the crypto market. Whether this momentum can extend beyond July remains to be seen, but our current focus is on the upcoming July 25 Bitcoin option expiry.
We’ve hedged our long Bitcoin position, entered at $104,000, with a $115,000 call. While the Bitcoin position is up $7,000, the call has only increased by $450, reflecting both lower implied volatility and time decay. So far, the trade is performing as expected. However, multiple catalysts remain in play, as we detail below.