What Circle’s $24B IPO Just Revealed about Ethereum’s Rally

Actionable Market Insights

Why this report matters

Bitcoin is hovering near critical levels, and Ethereum’s rally may be running on fumes, fueled more by headlines than fundamentals. Circle’s blockbuster IPO has lit a fire under parts of the crypto market, but beneath the surface, serious valuation cracks are starting to show.

ETF inflows, rising leverage, and SEC signals around DeFi have created a perfect storm of short-term momentum. But is this the beginning of a sustainable breakout—or the setup for a reversal? Meanwhile, one high-conviction pair trade is emerging from all the noise, built on fundamentals rather than hype.

Ethereum ETF inflows picked up as leverage and the funding rate jumped

Main argument

We've remained cautious about the recent Ethereum rally, and while Bitcoin has broken above the $106,000 resistance level, the momentum behind this move appears relatively weak. This is even more pronounced in Ethereum, where underlying fundamentals remain soft, yet the price action suggests otherwise. It’s clear that leveraged traders have piled into ETH, and combined with call option gamma hedging, this has driven prices higher.