What Today’s Inflation Print Won’t Tell You—But Markets Already Know

Actionable Market Insights

Today, the U.S. will release new inflation data, the first likely affected by the Trump tariffs. However, we expect a flat or modestly higher print. Even if inflation comes in above expectations, we don't anticipate a strong reaction from Bitcoin or equities. The tariffs appear to be less impactful than initially feared, with companies possibly hesitant to pass on the costs. Pre-tariff stockpiling ("hamster hoarding") hasn’t driven prices up, and inventories remain ample, limiting inflationary pressure.

Our CPI model closely predicted actual inflation print, except during COVID