Today, the U.S. will release new inflation data, the first likely affected by the Trump tariffs. However, we expect a flat or modestly higher print. Even if inflation comes in above expectations, we don't anticipate a strong reaction from Bitcoin or equities. The tariffs appear to be less impactful than initially feared, with companies possibly hesitant to pass on the costs. Pre-tariff stockpiling ("hamster hoarding") hasn’t driven prices up, and inventories remain ample, limiting inflationary pressure.
Our CPI model closely predicted actual inflation print, except during COVID