Ethereum has dropped 17% since our trend model turned bearish on October 8, and the downtrend persists. We covered our short last week, and that may have been early. This report goes back to the question that matters for allocators: is there still a fundamental case for owning ETH?
We look at what has happened to fees since the Merge and the Dencun upgrade, why staking yields can’t compete with Treasuries, what stablecoin flows are telling us, and how much of the price depends on a single buyer.
We also compare eight years of backtests across buy-and-hold, breakout and trend strategies, and the results may surprise anyone still treating Ethereum as a core holding.
Bitcoin (LHS) vs. Ethereum (RHS) - a widening gap?
