Why $8.6B in Dormant Bitcoin Just Moved—What It Means and How To Trade It
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
Bitcoin’s quiet grind higher might seem like just another consolidation, but on-chain flows tell a very different story. Dormant wallets holding billions are suddenly active again, ETF buyers keep accumulating, and Trump’s Fed rhetoric may be fueling more than just headlines. Yet despite strong July seasonality, something is capping Bitcoin’s upside. A hidden tug-of-war is unfolding between long-term “OG” holders and institutional whales, and only one side can win. Retail traders are tuning out, but the real signals are hidden in the data they’re not watching.
Main argument
Since Trump attended the Nashville Bitcoin summit in July 2024, a significant shift has been unfolding behind the scenes. The so-called Mega Whales, early Bitcoin miners and long-time holders, have begun gradually offloading their holdings in response to the relentless demand from Whales, defined as wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC.
Eight dormant Satoshi-era Bitcoin wallets were reactivated on Friday after 14 years, resulting in a combined $8.6 billion in transactions. These "OG" wallets have been a persistent overhang on the market and a key reason Bitcoin has struggled to make meaningful gains over the past six months, despite no clear signs that these specific wallets intend to sell. However, our analysis, which has been ahead of the curve and cited by several news outlets, has long suggested that early holders are gradually offloading into ETF and corporate treasury demand. Below, we explain what it means and how to trade it.
See the attached Bloomberg article that has used our argument as the basis.
Bitcoin holdings by wallet cohort: the Whales are not in charge…but…
