Why the $140,000 Bitcoin Target Isn’t as Easy as It Sounds

Actionable Market Insights

Why this report matters

Bitcoin has delivered an impressive rally this year, but momentum may be fading just as the calendar turns to its weakest stretch. Behind the headlines of ETF inflows and bullish price targets lies a more nuanced reality: capital appears to be peaking, not accelerating.

For five straight months, our seasonal model has accurately tracked Bitcoin’s trajectory—and it’s now flashing a very different signal. A subtle shift in on-chain data, weakening market structure, and a void of fresh catalysts could all combine into a new phase. The market doesn’t yet realize it, but time may be running out. What happens next could force even the most optimistic forecasts to reset.

This is one of the most important Bitcoin indicators, as we explain below

Main argument

Over the past five months, our seasonal Bitcoin model has closely aligned with actual market performance. Historically, Bitcoin tends to underperform in January following a strong fourth quarter—but in 2025, it rallied instead, driven by optimism around a crypto-friendly Trump presidency. February, which typically sees a rebound, underperformed this year. However, since March, the model has reliably tracked Bitcoin’s trajectory. For July, we projected a +9.1% gain (here), and Bitcoin is currently up +9.8%, underscoring the model’s effectiveness in capturing market seasonality.

Bitcoin is approaching a critical inflection point—not just driven by seasonal trends or market structure, but by a key on-chain indicator that may offer early insight into its next major move, as we detail below.