Our Wednesday report flagged an upward bias for Friday’s inflation release, and Thursday’s PPI print has only heightened market concern that a September 16 rate hike is now possible. The probability of that hike has climbed from 42% following Fed Governor Waller’s speech to 71.5% today, so the market’s bias has clearly shifted toward expecting a hike.
Based on some of our CPI models, which we explain below, this concern may be justified when looking purely at the data, but other considerations are at play. How are traders pricing Bitcoin’s move over the next 36 hours as the CPI print hits the market? And how are they positioning for Bitcoin’s move after the FOMC meeting?
We break this down below, along with an important factor with $6.6 billion at stake and how it could shape Bitcoin’s reaction to both the CPI data and the Fed decision.
US ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (LHS) vs. US CPI YoY (RHS)
