This Week’s Insights for Traders - August 29
Actionable Market Insights
10x Research delivers institutional-grade, actionable insights through Market Updates, Trading Signals, and Trading Strategies—here’s what we published this week.
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Market Update
Why Gold’s Quiet Breakout Could Spark Bitcoin’s Next Move
Options markets are flashing extreme signals, with Ethereum volatility priced at one of the widest spreads to Bitcoin in years. At the same time, gold is creeping toward a breakout as U.S. debt issuance explodes—an underappreciated macro theme Bitcoin could soon mirror.
Market Update
10x Derivatives Edge: Bitcoin Volatility/Options Play
Bitcoin’s options market is flashing signals that traders can’t afford to ignore. Implied volatility has risen above realized volatility, skew has flipped sharply bearish, and the term structure points to heightened uncertainty into September.
Market Update
The Famous Bitcoin Liquidity Signal Is Failing—Here’s the Replacement
Many traders still rely on broad liquidity and cycle analysis to forecast Bitcoin’s price. But, as in November 2021, they are learning the hard way that the framework for analyzing Bitcoin profitably has shifted temporarily.
Market Update
Korean Billions Pumping Bitmine, Ethereum, and Circle
Need a buyer for an obscure MicroStrategy preferred share with no dividends, or for a leveraged Ethereum ETF? No problem—you’ll find them in Korea. Billions are flowing not just into Bitcoin, but into Circle, Bitmine, and Ethereum-linked equities—often with more force than into Tesla or NVIDIA.
Market Update
$200,000 Bitcoin? The Math Says Otherwise
Consensus targets remain sky-high, but the gap between market expectations and what the data shows is widening. Beneath the surface, on-chain flows reveal a critical shift in behavior that could decide whether this cycle extends or falters.
Market Update
Powell Suggests Driving Backwards as $1 Trillion Disappears
If the Fed is driving by the rear-view mirror, what happens when the road ahead suddenly bends? The answer may determine not just the next move in bonds and equities, but whether Bitcoin becomes the only true North Star.
Market Update
10x Weekly Crypto Kickoff - $112K BTC Battleground, Bulls Eye Upside, NVIDIA Earnings
Ethereum Futures open interest increased by $200 million to $40.1 billion. The Ethereum funding rate decreased by -2.7% this week to 8.2%, which is in the 39th percentile of the last twelve months. Futures open interest increased by $3100 million to $34.1 billion.
Trading Signals
New Signal -> based upon 8/10 observations
See details inside.
Trading Signals
New Signal -> based upon 8/10 observations
See details inside.
Trading Signals
New Signal -> based upon 8/10 observations
See details inside.
Trading Strategy
Crypto Stocks: Understand What is Moving in the Market and Why.
Our regression analysis shows MicroStrategy trading at a 15% discount relative to Bitcoin, even as its net asset value still commands a 1.3x premium. With Bitcoin trading below its 30-day moving average, the short-term trend remains bearish.
Trading Strategy
Bitcoin Chart Book - Most Important Daily, Weekly, Monthly Charts
See details inside.
Trading Strategy
Ethereum Chart Book - Most Important Daily, Weekly, Monthly Charts
See details inside.
Trading Strategy
Bitcoin Accumulation or Distribution? A notable shift in daily flows
Many observers fixate on abstract liquidity proxies like money supply, or on the obvious flows from Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy’s regular purchase announcements. These constant buy-side headlines fuel the bullish narrative. But the proper driver of price lies in the balance between buyers and sellers—and after 16 years, there is no shortage of long-term holders willing to sell at current levels.
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