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10x Research delivers institutional-grade, actionable insights through Market Updates, Trading Signals, and Trading Strategies—here’s what we published this week.
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Market Update
Crypto One Liners: What’s Driving the Market in a Minute - November 2
Nov 2: Bitcoin remains the clear market leader as altcoins lag, supported by steady ETF inflows and slowing stablecoin growth that reinforces capital concentration into BTC. Major networks like Ethereum, Solana, and BNB continue to announce upgrades, institutional partnerships, and token-economic developments, but price follow-through has been uneven. Select tokens such as Hedera and Virtuals benefitted from ETF listings, product launches, and whale accumulation, showing pockets of momentum.
Market Update
Extracting Free Bitcoin Optionality from Coinbase. Timing is critical.
Nov 2: Crypto markets are sending a very different signal beneath the surface, and it’s not the one most investors are trading on. Bitcoin has outperformed Coinbase by a wide margin since early 2024, yet options markets are now pricing COIN as the higher-risk asset. That disconnect has quietly opened one of the most compelling spreads we’ve seen this year, the kind professionals exploit long before the public notices.
Market Update
Hedging Bitcoin? Why Shorting Ethereum May Be the Smart Move. How Low Could ETH fall?
Oct 31: Market narratives don’t die with headlines — they die in silence, when new capital stops believing. Ethereum’s “institutional treasury” story convinced many, but the bid behind it wasn’t what it seemed. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has spent months compressing into a pattern that historically resolves violently. Institutional options positioning is quietly choosing a side, even as retail looks the other way. Even for Bitcoin itself, the tactical picture has weakened after repeatedly losing the $110,000–$112,000 support zone. This is why, on October 22, we circulated a bear-market risk note highlighting on-chain deterioration.
Market Update
Bitcoin at a Line in the Sand: How We’re Positioning
Oct 30: See details
Market Update
Bitcoin: Everyone Sees Consolidation — Few See the Ice Wall Cracking
Oct 30: Bitcoin looks calm on the surface — but the data says something very different. Beneath this sideways price action, long-term holders are quietly distributing while institutional flows hesitate, creating a fragile balance that rarely lasts. A slight shift in ETF demand, dollar strength, or Fed tone could determine whether this resolves into a squeeze higher or a break lower — and right now, both forces are colliding at a critical level.
Market Update
$18 Billion Was Lost in MicroStrategy — Now the Next Wave of Winners Is Positioning. Here’s What They’re Seeing.
Oct 29: For months, the market decided MicroStrategy was finished — a broken Bitcoin proxy with no catalysts and an exhausted playbook. Yet beneath the capitulation, something shifted, and catalysts are approaching, with one just days away. A setup like this doesn’t appear often — and when it does, it rarely looks bullish at first glance. The last time sentiment looked this washed-out, the stock went on a multi-month tear. Now, another inflection point is approaching — but this time, the payoff profile looks very different.
Market Update
Is Bitcoin Now Too Expensive for Retail — and Could It Break the Cycle?
Oct 28: Bitcoin is suffering from diminishing returns. While many view this as a natural sign of maturity, it raises deeper questions about the validity of the so-called Bitcoin cycle theory. Although the Bitcoin network offers abundant, fascinating data, drawing firm statistical conclusions from just three or four cycles is highly questionable.
As we highlighted in our May 10, 2024, report (here), the once-popular stock-to-flow model has long lost credibility after failing to track prices accurately in 2021 — a flaw stemming from an excessive focus on supply while ignoring Bitcoin’s demand-driven nature. Nonetheless, we used a modified version of that model to forecast the bear-market bottom in October 2022 correctly.
Market Update
10x Weekly Crypto Kickoff – Options Market Turns Neutral as Leverage Builds for Upside
Oct 27: The crypto market is steadily recovering from the October 10 crash, with our top post-crash altcoin pick (see October 13 report) up by 20% and likely to extend gains, as BTC and ETH skews show that derivatives markets have priced out most near-term risk. Funding rates point to renewed upside leverage, while ETF inflows will be critical this week to sustain momentum—just as our technical indicators (see October 24 report) anticipated.
Trading Signals
Crypto Trends Chart Book: Understand What is Moving in the Market and Why
Nov 2: Our altcoin model has now favored Bitcoin for 42 consecutive days, and the market has proven it right as Bitcoin has outperformed. Altcoins continue to lag with little meaningful positive news flow, suggesting the relative bleed versus BTC may persist.
Trading Signals
10x Derivatives Edge: BTC & ETH Volatility/Options Analysis
Oct 31: Volatility just sent a signal most investors will miss — and crypto options desks aren’t waiting. Bitcoin’s near-term implied vol just spiked while longer maturities barely moved, hinting at a catalyst window few are positioned for. Ethereum’s curve is doing the opposite, quietly flashing structural uncertainty and a very different long-term payoff profile.
Meanwhile, skew has blown out at the front end, then snapped back, as traders scrambled to hedge macro shocks and month-end “expiry” risk. Under the surface, a rare setup is forming where one asset’s vol is too cheap, the other too rich, and both are mispriced relative to the real catalyst calendar. As always, we have two option trades for you with especially the second one appearing very attractive.
Trading Signals
New Signal -> based upon 9/10 observations
Oct 28: See details
Trading Strategy
Crypto Stocks: Understand What is Moving in the Market and Why.
Nov 1: Bitcoin (BTC is below the 7-day moving average -> bearish, and is below the 30 day moving average -> bearish, with 1 week change of +1.8%) slid after remarks from Federal Reserve officials raised caution about future rate cuts, dampening risk-asset appetite. MicroStrategy reported a quarterly profit boosted by its Bitcoin holdings, reinforcing institutional demand. Growing momentum around U.S. cryptocurrency legislation and ETF filings continues to support longer-term bullish sentiment for Bitcoin. BTC drifted around the low $110 K range as macro-and institutional drivers clashed, keeping price motion visibly linked to external policy and capital flows.
Trading Strategy
Macro Liquidity Isn’t the Driver — Structural Flows Point to a the Real Bitcoin Squeeze
Oct 29: Bitcoin’s price action is increasingly being misread through the lens of macro liquidity metrics, yet the decisive drivers this cycle remain structural supply dynamics and investor flow behavior. Despite broad expectations that rising liquidity should propel Bitcoin, the correlation is inconsistent, lagging, and often non-causal.
Trading Strategy
MicroStrategy Chart Book - Most Important Daily, Weekly, Monthly Charts
Oct 28: MicroStrategy has dropped sharply since the summer lull began following passage of the U.S. GENIUS Act (Exhibit 1). Although the technical picture remains bearish, the stock is deeply oversold, creating conditions for a potentially sharp reversal (Exhibit 2).
Trading Strategy
Bitcoin Chart Book - Most Important Daily, Weekly, Monthly Charts
Oct 28: Bitcoin has reclaimed its 20-day moving average, opening room for upside toward $123,045, though stops should remain below the 20-day line (Exhibit 1). As long as price holds above short-term support — including the 13-day moving average at $109,989 — the bullish bias stays intact (Exhibit 2). Reversal signals are improving and still have room to expand; while ideal reset levels weren’t fully reached, price came close to attractive entry territory (Exhibits 4–6).
Trading Strategy
S&P500 Chart Book - Most Important Daily, Weekly, Monthly Charts
Oct 28: Securing an attractive entry point is increasingly difficult unless the tech sector corrects after this week’s earnings — which would require a meaningful challenge to the AI narrative. That outcome currently appears unlikely, as companies can simply guide higher AI-related capex, and investors continue to reward that message. The S&P 500 remains stretched above its upper Bollinger Band at $6,833, signaling elevated pullback risk, with more attractive entry levels near $6,745 or the lower Band at $6,616
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